UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s CPI figures will have done little to reassure those MPC members who have recently sounded a bit more concerned about the inflation outlook. But they should not cause the Committee to think... 20th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Feb.) & BRC Retail Sales (Mar.) February’s trade figures finally brought some good news about the exporting side of the economy. But there is a long way to go before the external sector can fully compensate for the weakness in the... 13th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Mar.) March’s surprisingly strong rise in UK producer prices will prompt some concern that pipeline inflation pressures are building. But there are good reasons not to be too concerned. 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) The rise in the Halifax house price index in March suggests that February’s drop was not the start of a new downward trend. However, with market conditions now loosening, mortgage lending criteria... 8th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) Surveys of house price expectations, although weakening, are yet to signal the renewed falls that we are forecasting for the second half of this year. However, their record in anticipating price... 8th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Mar.) The latest batch of data on the services sector painted a mixed picture of the strength of the recovery in the biggest part of the economy. But at least the economy appears to have avoided relapsing... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Manufacturing (Mar.) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) The latest manufacturing data suggested that the industrial recovery is progressing nicely. But the Bank of England’s credit conditions survey did little to alter our view that a prolonged period of... 1st April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) Q4’s national accounts and balance of payments releases left the UK economy looking both a bit stronger and a bit better balanced than before. But they do not alter the big picture of a sluggish and... 30th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) February’s surprise drop in the Nationwide house price index was not repeated, suggesting that the recovery in house prices still has some life. However, with mortgage lending remaining subdued in... 30th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) February’s surprise drop in the Nationwide house price index was not repeated, suggesting that the recovery in house prices still has some life. However, with mortgage lending remaining subdued in... 30th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Although, perhaps, still artificially weak following the poor weather and the end of the previous stamp duty holiday, today’s mortgage lending data do not inspire confidence that last year’s housing... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Surveys of house price expectations, although weakening, are yet to signal the renewed falls that we are forecasting for the second half of this year. However, their record in anticipating price... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s official measure of retail sales confirmed that high street spending bounced back after the snow and VAT rise hit spending at the start of the year. But the underlying trend appears to have... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s consumer prices figures should provide some reassurance that, beneath the various special factors that have affected inflation in recent months, underlying price pressures in the UK economy... 23rd March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Feb.) February’s fortuitously timed improvement in the public finances has given Mr Darling scope for some pre-election sweeteners in next week’s Budget. But make no mistake – a long and painful fiscal... 18th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar.) & Labour Data (Jan./Feb.) The minutes of March’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting confirmed that the Committee is content to sit back for now and see how the effects of its past asset purchases pan out. But while it may... 17th March 2010 · 1 min read