UK Commercial Property Outlook Weak economy to prevent a sustained, strong recovery in capital values (Q4 09) Economic prospects have improved since the previous Analyst, but not sufficiently to warrant a material change to our commercial property forecasts. As a result, over the period 2010-13, we still... 17th November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook The emerging recovery will gather momentum this year, but will fade during 2010 (Q3 09) Evidence that a revival is underway in the commercial property investment market continues to build. Given that and the upward revisions to our economic growth forecasts for 2010, we have increased... 20th August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Yields will peak this year, but rental downturn means capital values are set to fall further (Q2 09) Our economic and commercial property forecasts are broadly unchanged from the previous Analyst. We still expect the recession to run well into next year and for all-property capital values to decline... 28th July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Falling rents to become the key driver of the correction this year (Q1 09) The economic outlook has deteriorated even further over the past three months. As a result, we now expect GDP to contract by 3% this year and by a further 1% in 2010. Accordingly, we have downgraded... 17th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Commercial property downturn to exceed the slumps of the 1970s and 1990s (Q4 08) Although it might have been scarcely believable when we published the previous Analyst three months ago, the economic outlook has taken a further major turn for the worse. We now expect a serious... 10th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Occupier market outlook weaker; deeper property price correction is the result (Q3 08) There is no immediate end in sight to the commercial property yield correction and, on the back of downgrades to our general economic views since the previous Analyst, we have revised down our... 11th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Too soon to look for the trough in commercial property prices (Q2 08) Our commercial property forecasts are broadly unchanged. We still expect a total fall in capital values of between 25% and 30%. In other words, according to IPD data which now show that capital values... 20th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Weak economy to prompt rental downturn and extend soft returns into 2009 (Q1 08) Until recently, we were optimistic that the commercial property correction would be short-lived and driven solely by a yield shift. But we have revised down our forecasts for GDP growth in 2008 and... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Commercial property correction set to be sharper, but it will also be over sooner (Q4 07) Our medium-term forecasts are little changed. We still expect capital values in 2010 to be some 10% to 12% lower than at the end of 2006 while total annual returns for the period 2007 to 2011 will... 28th November 2007 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Emerging commercial property correction will intensify next year (Q3 07) Our forecasts for the commercial property market remain on track. Developments over the past quarter have done nothing to change our view that commercial property is heading for a correction driven by... 20th September 2007 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Capital values set to fall in 2008 as the boom finally ends (Q2 07) This edition of the Analyst marks a distinct change in our expectations for the commercial property market. We have been warning about the upside risks to interest rates and thus the downside risks to... 7th June 2007 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Commercial property total returns set to halve in 2007 (Q1 07) Our forecasts are only marginally changed from the previous edition of the Commercial Property Analyst. Despite a slight moderation this year, we expect solid GDP growth over the medium term. Although... 7th March 2007 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook A modest rise in interest rates will not generate a commercial property crash (Q4 06) Neither our macro-economic nor our commercial property market forecasts have changed materially since the previous edition of the Analyst. We expect GDP growth to slow from an estimated 2.5% in 2006... 18th December 2006 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Commercial Property Analyst Publication (Q3 06) Recent developments have reinforced our belief that commercial property now looks overvalued relative to both the performance of the underlying occupier market and other assets. Thus the end to the... 2nd August 2006 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Momentum ensures 2006 will be another cracker, but rising yields will douse returns next year With yields continuing to fall, we believe that commercial property is over-valued against bonds, equities and the performance of the underlying occupier market. However, we believe yields will... 26th May 2006 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Budget 2006: Implications for property The biggest property-related news to come from today’s Budget is that legislation allowing the operation of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the UK will come into force on 1st January 2007... 22nd March 2006 · 1 min read
