OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.)

OPEC kept output slightly below its quota in November. We expect that OPEC will produce within its new quota until it expires in March 2020, but that Saudi Arabia will do most of the heavy lifting.

11th December 2019 · 3 mins read

OPEC Watch

OPEC springs a surprise

Today, OPEC+ announced that it will deepen its oil output cut by 0.5m bpd to 1.7m. More surprising, is that it looks as though Saudi Arabia will cut supply by a further 167,000, despite the fact that...

6th December 2019 · 3 mins read

OPEC Watch

OPEC+ to roll over output cuts

There has been mounting speculation that OPEC+ is set to agree deeper cuts at its upcoming meeting. However, we still think Saudi Arabia’s concerns about its loss of market share, and little appetite...

4th December 2019 · 3 mins read

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Nov.)

OPEC’s November Report, and recent comments by the organisation’s secretary general, suggest OPEC is becoming more optimistic about the prospects for demand for its crude in 2020. This may be an...

14th November 2019 · 3 mins read

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Oct.)

OPEC’s September production data were distorted by the attacks on Saudi oil facilities, but overall output remained subdued. Deeper supply cuts are likely to be discussed at OPEC’s December meeting...

10th October 2019 · 3 mins read

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.)

OPEC kept output below quota in August. We think that it will continue to under-produce in 2020, particularly as the Saudi Aramco IPO nears, and that this will be one factor supporting prices.

11th September 2019 · 3 mins read

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.)

While another cut in Saudi Arabian oil output pushed OPEC production further below its quota in July, we doubt that the Kingdom is on the cusp of taking larger action in order to support oil prices.

16th August 2019 · 3 mins read

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jul.)

OPEC sees demand for its oil falling in 2020 as non-OPEC producers take market share owing to its policy of output restraint. It forecasts that growth in global demand will be unchanged next year...

11th July 2019 · 3 mins read

OPEC Watch

OPEC+ output restraint won’t prevent prices falling

OPEC+ has agreed to rollover its current output quotas for nine months, but weak demand means that we still expect the market to move into a surplus and oil prices to fall by end-2019.

2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read

OPEC Watch

OPEC+ appears likely to extend its output cuts

We expect OPEC+ to reaffirm its current output quotas for another six months when it meets next week. The group is likely to justify the move by highlighting high stocks and subdued demand prospects...

28th June 2019 · 3 mins read

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jun.)

OPEC highlighted risks to demand and high stocks in its latest report which, coupled with lower prices, suggest that there will be little appetite for increasing production when the group meets later...

13th June 2019 · 1 min read

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May)

Following the recent escalation of US sanctions on Iran’s crude exports, attention has been focused on OPEC’s next move. An upward revision to global demand for OPEC crude could give some members...

14th May 2019 · 1 min read

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Apr.)

As a group, OPEC is more than complying with its production quota, which helps to explain the recent rally in prices. That said, individual country compliance is quite poor with Saudi Arabia...

10th April 2019 · 1 min read

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Mar.)

The latest data show that OPEC has more than met its production quota, albeit mostly down to Saudi Arabia. However, with non-OPEC oil supply increasing and demand growth waning, we still think that...

14th March 2019 · 1 min read

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Feb.)

January production data showed that OPEC is more than complying with the output cuts announced in late 2018, which probably explains the relative resilience of oil prices in recent weeks. However, we...

12th February 2019 · 1 min read