Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Perky PMIs and a Riksbank surprise The June PMI surveys from the Nordics add to the evidence that the region’s economies are further down the road to recovery than others in Europe. Next week, mainland GDP data from Norway for May will... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Nordic consumers making up for lost time The fact that retail sales volumes grew in year-on-year terms in the Nordic economies in May suggests that the Covid-related drops in consumption may end up being much smaller than we have assumed up... 26th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Revised forecasts; policy stasis; football is back! Amid increasing signs that the Nordic economies have weathered the Covid crisis better than most we have upgraded our forecasts for GDP growth, and expect some clear daylight between growth in Sweden... 19th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden is weathering Covid comparatively well The 11% peak-to-trough drop in Swedish household consumption between February and April puts paid to any notion that Sweden has escaped unscathed following its light-touch lockdown. Nonetheless, the... 12th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB gets the chance to regroup; Norway picking up The positive policy moves out of Europe have weighed on the Swiss franc and has ratcheted down the pressure on the SNB. Meanwhile, Norway’s economy appears to have clawed back about half of what was... 5th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Repo rate cut in the pipeline The fact that the Swedish economy grew a touch in Q1 adds to signs that the country has enjoyed some economic benefit from its light-touch lockdown. However, exports probably won’t save the day again... 29th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly “Personae non gratae” Swedes; Swiss franc falls The possibility of countries keeping their borders with Sweden closed given the higher prevalence of Covid-19 there underlines that the country is likely to see limited economic benefit from its light... 22nd May 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway rips up the fiscal rule book Having endured a bruising few months, the risks to the Norwegian krone now appear to be on the upside, not least given that the government plans to spend a greater proportion of the pension fund this... 15th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly External demand to constrain Sweden’s recovery While there are welcome signs that Sweden has reaped some benefits from its light-touch lockdown, the economy will be constrained by the recovery in the rest of the continent given its dependence on... 7th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Surveys at their limits; Norges Bank to cut to zero While the KOF Economic Barometer registered its largest monthly fall on record in April, like many other indicators elsewhere, it is struggling to capture the unprecedented scale of damage wreaked by... 1st May 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank heading for negative territory While the 1.9% q/q plunge in mainland GDP in Norway in Q1 was slightly smaller than the record seen in 2008, it is an eye-watering decline given that the lockdown did not really begin until 12th March... 24th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly The gradual process of reopening begins While activity in the Swiss economy has fallen off a cliff, the stereotypical efficiency with which loans have been channelled to businesses means that the country is well placed to recover. Next week... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly The Ides of March do it again The ramp-up in containment measures in mid-March dealt a huge blow to the Norwegian economy. While restrictions will start to be lifted slowly later this month, we think that it is increasingly likely... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norwegian unemployment explodes close to 15% While the decline in the Swedish services PMI in March seems small compared to the eye-watering declines in the euro-zone, the underlying picture is worse than it may first appear. Next week, we... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB puts its moral hazard worries to the side The virus-related hit to activity appears to be even deeper than the 15% q/q declines in GDP that we tentatively pencilled in a few weeks ago. Data released next week are likely to show that Swiss CPI... 27th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK carnage; Danish rate hike! The Norwegian krone has endured an extraordinary week and will be vulnerable to further falls until market sentiment improves. Nonetheless, if our forecast for oil prices to start to rise later this... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
