Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s August shocker The slump in Sweden’s GDP indicator for August brought its economy back below its pre-pandemic level, whereas Norway – which appears to be unencumbered by these headwinds – saw its economy continue... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Opinions at Riksbank slowly starting to shift our way The minutes from the Riksbank’s last meeting, which were released this week, indicate that half of the six Executive Board members think the time is approaching to dial the dovishness back a touch... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank and Riksbank to follow different paths Having finally begun its tightening cycle this week, we forecast the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate to 1.50% by end-2022, which is more hawkish than is currently priced into the market... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Monetary policy decisions, served three ways After months of anticipation, the Norges Bank will surely pull the trigger on its long-awaited tightening cycle next Thursday. We suspect that policymakers will portray the rate rise as a “dovish hike... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway’s “climate election”; Riksbank’s QE dilemma The run-up to Norway’s parliamentary elections on Monday 13 th has been dominated by a debate over the speed at which the country should transition away from its reliance on energy. Labour’s Jonas... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly ABBA redux; Swiss government spending splurge The news this week that ABBA are re-forming chimes with the current up-beat mood about the Swedish economy . While we doubt that the Riksbank will be in a rush to raise the repo rate, we expect it to... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Survey synchronisation; NOK resurgence The sharp fall in the forward-looking Swiss investor sentiment indicator in August mirrored the pattern seen in the German Ifo. While sentiment was bound to soften sooner or later and Switzerland has... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank in the final furlong; CHF on the up We expect the Norges Bank to deliver on its plan to start to raise interest rates, in September, which could offer some respite for the beleaguered krone. Meanwhile, data released next week are likely... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics What can we learn from Iceland’s virus spike? The recent spike in virus cases in Iceland has raised eyebrows given the country’s high degree of vaccination coverage. Although the cause of the surge is unclear, Iceland’s experience appears to... 13th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Olympic productivity gains; fading boosts to Swiss CPI Norway’s Karsten Warholm had the race of his life this week, but if only it were as easy for economic policymakers to achieve the 1-2% productivity gains that the super-springy running track in Tokyo... 6th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly KOF coming back earth; Sweden powering ahead The latest fall in the KOF Economic Barometer suggests that the tailwinds that have driven the rebound in the Swiss industrial sector are fading. But with the hospitality sector going from strength to... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Summer Olympics not N&S’s comparative advantage Switzerland and the Nordic countries don’t tend to excel in the summer Olympics but they dominate the winter games when their comparative advantage of lots of snow and mountains becomes apparent. Next... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics SNB not following ECB; Sweden bucks inflation trend The SNB confirmed this week that it wouldn’t be following the ECB in raising its inflation target, but that doesn’t change the big picture that it looks set to leave interest rates on hold for a very... 16th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics ECB move shifts goalposts for SNB; Löfven’s back! The ECB’s new monetary policy strategy means that the SNB is even less likely to be in a position to start raising rates in 2023, which is what investors currently expect. And it reinforces our view... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear) The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to stay on hold; Swiss Saturday Night Fever With the Swedish economy going great guns but little sign of inflationary trouble on the horizon, we expect the Riksbank to maintain the status quo at its policy meeting next Thursday. Otherwise, the... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
