Energy Rapid Response OPEC output cuts point to a large market deficit in Q4 Yesterday, OPEC+ members announced voluntary cuts to production from May until the end of the year. In total, the cuts amount to 1.16m bpd or about 1.1% of global supply, with Saudi Arabia accounting... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2023) The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) announced that it raised interest rates by 200bp, taking the overnight deposit rate to 18.25%, this evening in a much-needed decision. While this is clearly a positive... 30th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed to 3.0% y/y in February on the back of an easing of both food and non-food inflation. We think that this marks the start of a gradual easing in inflation... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb. 2023) Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to 31.9% y/y in February, leaving it just shy of an all-time high and reinforcing our view that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will need to resume its... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate nudged up from 3.3% y/y in December to 3.4% y/y in January, which came on the back of a small increase in non-food inflation. Inflation is now at or very close... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan. 2023) Egypt’s headline inflation rate climbed from 21.3% y/y in December to 25.8% y/y in January, its fastest pace since November 2017, on the back of the recent large falls in the pound. This adds to our... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4 2022, Flash Estimate) The flash estimate for Saudi Arabia’s economy showed GDP expanded by a solid 1.5% q/q in Q4, but year-on-year growth continued to soften and we expect this slowdown to continue into the early part of... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) Egypt’s CPI inflation rate jumped from 18.7% y/y in November to 21.3% y/y in December, its fastest pace since the end of 2017. With the pound having weakened even further since the turn of the year... 10th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The 300bp interest rate hike by the Egyptian Central Bank (CBE), which took the overnight deposit rate to 16.25%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about rising inflation and further... 22nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Saudi inflation ticked down to 2.9% y/y in November on the back of a drop in food inflation. We think the headline rate will continue to fall back toward 2.0% y/y over the course of 2023. And, if... 15th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egypt’s CPI inflation rate jumped from 16.2% y/y in October to 18.7% y/y in November – its fastest pace in five years. The headline rate only is set to only climb higher and the Central Bank of Egypt... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Nov.) November’s batch of PMIs provide further evidence that the non-oil sectors in the Gulf economies are rounding off the year on a strong footing. 5th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation eased a touch from 3.1% y/y in September to 3.0% y/y in October (Consensus: 3.0% y/y; CE: 2.8% y/y) and we think the headline rate will continue to slow heading into 2023. 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The acceleration in Egypt’s CPI inflation rate from 15.0% y/y in September to a four-year high of 16.2% y/y in October (consensus 15.6% y/y, CE 15.8% y/y) lends support to our view that policymakers... 10th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Oct.) October’s batch of PMIs picked up in most of the region but there remains a stark divergence in growth prospects between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies. 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt shifts to flexible exchange rate, hikes interest rates Egypt’s central bank has just announced that it is shifting to a more flexible exchange rate regime, which we think will result in the pound falling 18% to 24/$ by end-2023 if not sooner. The move... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
