Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ policy, Egypt’s orthodox shift and FY22/23 budget Next Thursday's OPEC+ meeting may drop some hints about the future for the group's oil output beyond September and we think that quotas are likely to be lifted. If that’s the case, the Gulf economies... 23rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fed hikes, Egypt’s policymaking, Egypt-Israel-EU gas deal Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed in hiking interest rates and further tightening lies in store. But there are reasons to think that the region’s economies will be relatively unscathed by... 16th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, PMIs, Tunisia austerity plans Last week’s decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace at which it is raising its oil production quota will provide a fillip to economic growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Meanwhile, May’s batch of... 9th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ talks, strike in Tunisia, Egypt’s bread subsidies Reports that OPEC+ may suspend Russia from its oil output deal reinforce our view that the Gulf states will raise production faster later this year. Meanwhile, Tunisia’s largest trade union called... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi fiscal policy, the IMF in Tunisia and Egypt Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan provided hints in comments this week that the fiscal purse strings could soon be loosened if oil prices remain elevated. Elsewhere, officials in... 26th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia rate hike, Saudi budget data, Egypt privatisations Tunisia’s central bank hiked interest rates this week with policymakers almost certainly having one eye on the country’s fragile external position. But we do not think that this will prevent sharp... 19th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s budget, UAE welfare, Lebanon election Egypt’s draft budget reiterated the government’s commitment to keeping fiscal policy tight but, with debt servicing costs rising sharply and the currency set to weaken, there are increasing concerns... 12th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ and the Russian oil embargo, GCC follows Fed The EU’s plans to phase out imports of Russian oil would increase the chances that the Gulf economies raise oil output more quickly. This would provide a significant fillip to economic recoveries this... 5th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oman's income tax, Egypt privatisation drive Reports over the past week suggest that, despite the boost to the public finances from high oil prices, Oman’s government is sticking to fiscal tightening with the likely introduction of a personal... 28th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt FX revenues boost, Tunisia avoids default (for now) Egyptian officials appear to be hoping for a revival of the tourism sector as part of their strategy to improve the external position, but we still think that the currency will need to weaken further... 21st April 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly N. Africa gas deals, Gulf tightening, Lebanon and the IMF Europe’s plans to wean itself off Russian gas could benefit producers in North Africa – and Egypt in particular. Elsewhere, stronger inflation in MENA and rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian pound, Kuwait political turmoil, Tunisia election The Egyptian pound has remained relatively stable since last month’s devaluation, but we think policymakers need to move to a more flexible exchange rate and allow the currency to weaken further... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Curtains close on World Expo, Gulf support for Egypt The World Expo in Dubai closes its doors today and, while it has provided a near-term fillip to the economy, we are concerned that it will leave a legacy of overcapacity in key sectors that reignites... 31st March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly A busy week in Egypt, Oman loosens the purse strings Policy announcements in Egypt this week, including a devaluation of the pound, have been pinned on the spill-overs from the war in Ukraine, but they have actually been some time in the making and may... 24th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran nuclear deal, wiring shortage a fillip to North Africa The Iran nuclear deal appears to be on the brink of being revived and, were that to happen, the lifting of sanctions would provide a major direct boost to Iran’s economy. Increased oil output could... 17th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Russian energy sanctions, non-Gulf external strains build The US and UK embargoes on Russian energy exports could open the door for the Gulf countries to raise oil production more quickly and implement their long-term strategies of capturing market share... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
