Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Saudi relations, Lebanon maritime deal, Tunisia crisis The past week has brought further evidence that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US has soured after OPEC+ opted to cut oil quotas – Saudi Arabia is clearly leaning away from the US orbit... 13th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ decision fallout, Egypt’s IMF deal The decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production quotas by 2mn bpd from November will fall disproportionately on the Gulf members - Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait. This clearly presents a downside risk... 6th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+, Lebanon re-pegging, Morocco rates, MbS to PM Reports suggest that OPEC+ is weighing up a cut to output quotas for the second meeting in a row next week, presenting a downside risk to our above-consensus GDP growth forecasts in the Gulf... 29th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE oil capacity, Egypt FX restrictions, Saudi-rupee trade The UAE is seeking to raise oil production capacity more aggressively than previously planned as it aims to get ahead of peak oil demand and capture oil market share. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia also... 22nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MPC meetings galore, Tunisia shortages and debt default Central banks in the Gulf are set to hike interest rates next week in line with the Fed, and we think that the Central Bank of Egypt will join the party and resume its tightening cycle next Thursday... 15th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ decision, a flexible EGP, inflation in MENA OPEC+’s decision to cut oil output quotas by 100,000bpd at Monday’s meeting and subsequent comments from the Saudi energy minister highlight the group’s wariness of a global recession and we expect... 8th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly CBE policy moves, OPEC+ meeting, Tunisia default risks The Central Bank of Egypt appears to be pressing ahead with its shift toward a more flexible exchange rate regime, which should also increase the likelihood of Egypt securing an IMF deal. Elsewhere... 1st September 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s hurdles to an IMF deal, Saudi threatens oil cut Egypt appears to be edging closer toward reaching a new IMF deal with officials having made positive steps in recent months to address the exchange rate, fiscal policy, and structural reforms, all of... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly All eyes on the Central Bank of Egypt The resignation of Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Governor Tarek Amer yesterday has further increased scrutiny of the country’s exchange rate policy. A weaker pound is clearly needed, preferably under an... 18th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt: PIF steps up investment; CBE rate hike on the cards Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has stepped up investments into Egypt this week that will help to ease external financing concerns. At the same time, electricity rationing will begin next week... 11th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s prolonged IMF talks, OPEC+ fallout Egypt’s Finance Minister Mohamed Maait argued this week that any financing agreement with the IMF would be much smaller than the $15bn suggested by some analysts but, if anything, the drawn out nature... 4th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Egypt and the IMF, Fed decision Next week’s OPEC+ meeting may provide the first hints of the group’s production policy beyond September and if, as we expect, it opts to remove quotas, the Gulf stands to benefit most. Elsewhere, the... 28th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia’s referendum, Egypt privatisation, MENA Outlook Tunisians will vote on proposed constitutional amendments on Monday, which could further deter foreign investors and impede progress on an IMF deal, compounding the country's economic problems... 21st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly President Biden heads to Saudi, Dubai PMI US President Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia tomorrow will focus on Iran, the normalisation of ties with Israel and raising oil output more quickly to push global prices down and ease inflation... 14th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price falls, Saudi & UAE fiscal loosening, PMIs Oil prices have fallen over the past month as global recession fears have mounted but, while they are likely to decline further over the coming years, they will remain high by past standards. This... 7th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly World Bank food loans, OPEC, SAMA liquidity injection Egypt and Tunisia received loans from the World Bank this week to help them face rising global food prices, but the loans will not cover all of the increase in imports and alleviate strains in balance... 30th June 2022 · 5 mins read
