Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi external position, PMIs, Egypt privatisation Recent data showed that Saudi Arabia recorded its largest current surplus since late 2014 in Q3 of last year as oil revenues boomed. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is recycling these surpluses into... 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisations, Saudi tourism, Lebanon re-pegs Egypt’s privatisation drive appears to be stepping up a gear in 2023 with plans to sell stakes in twenty companies which, if these materialise, will boost long-term economic prospects. But it remains... 2nd February 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ cuts, Egypt and the dollar, education reform OPEC+ is set to continue with its existing oil output quotas next week, although this means that oil sectors will act as a drag on the Gulf economies over the early part of 2023. Elsewhere, Egypt is... 26th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi and the “petroyuan”, investors like EGP fall Comments by Saudi Arabia’s finance minister that the Kingdom could conduct trade in currencies other than the dollar will add fuel to the debate about the rise of a “petroyuan”. There are hurdles to... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly What do the latest falls in the EGP mean for Egypt? The Egyptian pound has pared its losses after sharp falls against the dollar on Wednesday in a sign that, just like 2016, the currency may have overshot. The central bank may sense an opportunity to... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fears EGP fall will trigger sovereign debt crisis overdone The latest fall in the Egyptian pound sends a strong signal that the authorities are committed to the shift to a more flexible exchange rate. And while the weaker currency poses a threat to the... 5th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisian debt, Morocco & CBAM, Jordan protests The result of parliamentary elections in Tunisia last weekend will probably strengthen President Saied’s ability to pass laws, but could also dissuade the IMF from formally approving a financing... 22nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly CBE surprise meeting(?), Tunisia elections, World Cup Rumours are building the Central Bank of Egypt could convene a surprise meeting later today to deliver another aggressive interest rate hike ahead of the approval of the IMF deal tomorrow. This could... 15th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly N. African IMF deals, Saudi Budget, China-Saudi relations The IMF Executive Board is set to approve Egypt’s deal next week, but it’s notable that Tunisia staff-level agreement doesn’t seem to be on the Board’s agenda and the uncertainty will add to threat of... 8th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Qatar-Germany gas deal It seems likely that OPEC+ will opt to continue with October’s agreement to cut output quotas by 2mn bpd when the group meets on Sunday. That said, there are further signs that the group will become... 1st December 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ tensions, US-Saudi relations, Saudi-Argentina The volatility of oil prices has highlighted the uncertainty over the current OPEC+ oil output agreement and adds to our view that, with tensions already reportedly strained between members, the... 24th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisation, Saudi investment, Qatar World Cup Egypt’s state ownership policy document could come into effect in before the end of this year, but it remains to be seen how willing the authorities are to relinquish their control over the economy... 17th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt-UAE wind farm, Dubai property, Egypt downgrade Egypt’s announcement at COP27 of plans to build one of the largest onshore wind farms is a positive move to increase renewables usage that will improve energy security and support the balance of... 10th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi banking sector, UAE-Saudi quarrel, COP27 The surge in Saudi interbank rates in recent weeks could cause credit growth to slow more quickly than we currently expect. Elsewhere, reports point to growing discontent in the UAE with Saudi Arabia... 3rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt (finally) shifts to flexible pound, secures IMF deal This week ended with a bang as Egypt finally shifted to a more flexible exchange rate and secured an IMF deal. Some short-term economic pain is on the cards, but the move will help to restore macro... 27th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The IMF & MENA, Saudi’s industry strategy, oil demand Tunisia’s staff-level agreement with the IMF for a new deal should reduce concerns of a messy balance of payments crisis, but a sovereign debt restructuring still looks likely. Egypt, meanwhile, looks... 20th October 2022 · 6 mins read
