Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi-US relations, NEOM financing, Morocco and the IMF

Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia and the US are close to reaching a new security pact which, if confirmed, could swing the Kingdom back towards the US's orbit. Meanwhile, Saudi’s flagship gigaproject...

2nd May 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s privatisation drive, dollarisation in Lebanon

Egypt’s latest privatisation drive appears to have stalled after targets were watered down. The government doesn’t face the same need to secure revenues as it did recently, but privatisation is still...

25th April 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Iran-Israel tensions, Gulf floods, Egypt’s preliminary budget

The ratcheting up of tensions between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict. For now, it seems unlikely that the Gulf states will get drawn in unless there is a serious...

18th April 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s policy shift, Saudi gigaprojects, Morocco GDP

Just over a month ago Egypt’s authorities underwent their dramatic shift to economic orthodoxy and the signs so far are more positive than in previous instances. The pound is more flexible, inflation...

11th April 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Consulate strike and the threat of a Iran-Israel war

The Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria this week has ratcheted up tensions in the region and the threat of an outright conflict between Iran and Israel is at its highest since the war in Gaza...

4th April 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s path to faster growth, Houthis and Gulf oil output

Egypt’s recent policy shift has been met with a lot of optimism among investors and will likely see its new IMF deal approved by the Executive Board tomorrow. But the policies involve some near-term...

28th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Flexible EGP on the rise, Morocco’s cautious central bank

The Egyptian pound has appreciated by 10% against the dollar in the past couple of weeks since its devaluation, providing hope that the CBE is finally following through with its commitment to a more...

21st March 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The good and bad of Egypt’s policy shift, Aramco transfer

Last week’s policy moves in Egypt have raised concerns about a fresh surge in inflation, particularly after the jump recorded in the February CPI data. But while inflation may increase again in March...

14th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s Super Wednesday pulls it back from the brink

Egypt finally made the long-awaited shift back toward economic orthodoxy on Wednesday with the pound being devalued, interest rates hiked aggressively, and a new and enhanced IMF deal agreed. There...

7th March 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Ras el Hekma deal, Qatar’s LNG expansion boost

The deal in which Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, will invest $35bn in the Ras el-Hekma project will provide much needed foreign currency inflows for Egypt’s economy. But, even with this...

29th February 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Tunisia’s unorthodox policy shift, Egypt’s Unified Budget Act

While Tunisia's government managed to avert default this week by meeting a Eurobond repayment, it only did so by draining already low FX reserves. With the new central bank governor set to take...

22nd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi public finances and fiscal outlook, Egypt-IMF latest

Figures published this week confirmed that Saudi Arabia ran a budget deficit over 2023 and we expect another deficit this year. While the government shouldn’t struggle to finance this, if oil prices...

15th February 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Bahrain dollar bond issuance, Egypt softening the blow

Bahrain became the latest EM dollar bond issuer this week, and the $2bn raised will help it to meet large upcoming debt repayments. But officials still need to tighten fiscal policy over the coming...

8th February 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Aramco’s plans, Jordan and regional conflict, Tunisia’s crisis

Saudi Arabia’s government this week directed the state oil giant Aramco to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but this won’t necessarily stop Aramco from ramping up actual output in the...

1st February 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt and the IMF, Red Sea disruptions and the Gulf

IMF officials have been in Egypt this week to discuss a new financing package and, while no news has emerged yet, the accelerating depreciation of the pound on the parallel market underscores Egypt’s...

25th January 2024 · 7 mins read