Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian competitiveness, Lebanon’s budget The Egyptian government’s decision this week to impose import tariffs on steel rebars and iron pellets highlights the government’s slippage on structural reforms and also suggests that the pound may... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco’s bond sale, Saudi risk premium Aramco’s bumper bond sale this week was seen by many as a vote of confidence in the Saudi economy and the government’s reform plans. But other indicators don’t back this up. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Strong growth won’t last, oil prices, Aramco’s finances The raft of Q4 GDP data released this week showed that the region recorded its fastest growth in three years at the end of 2018. But a slowdown is now underway and is likely to intensify. Meanwhile... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Twist in Algeria, Aramco-SABIC deal, Egypt’s draft budget The latest attempt to quell protests in Algeria doesn’t appear to have worked and there’s a risk that the demonstrations become more disruptive and the chances of a messy political transition are... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi projects, jitters over Lebanon, Egypt’s gas revival Plans announced this week for a wave of megaprojects in Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, add to the impression that the government is diverting its attention away from the bold reforms needed to... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE’s property slump, Oman’s need for a bailout Talk of banks in the UAE needing to lengthen the maturity of real estate loans may be the first sign that the country’s property slump is starting to cause fresh debt problems. Elsewhere, Oman may not... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi bank tax, Oman gets junk status, Algeria protests Reports that the Saudi government is considering hiking taxes on banks supports our view that low oil prices will eventually prompt a return to fiscal austerity. Meanwhile, Moody’s decision to strip... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi to extend output cuts, more protests in Algeria Fresh hints from Saudi Arabia that it will extend its oil production cuts into the second half of this year support our view that economic growth in the Kingdom will be weaker than most anticipate... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Further rate hikes likely in Tunisia, the Qatar blockade The Tunisian central bank hiked its key policy rate aggressively this week and we think that further steps will be needed to correct the country’s large economic imbalances. Meanwhile, the UAE has... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cuts and expat fees, Egypt inflation Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister that oil production will be reduced to well below its OPEC quota suggests that the authorities are focused on driving oil prices higher in order to prevent a... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s new government, Dubai’s loan rollover The formation of a new government in Lebanon has raised investors’ hopes that the dire public finances will be put on a stable footing. But we think that these will be disappointed, causing the recent... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s pound to lose ground, Saudi anti-corruption drive The appreciation of the Egyptian pound this week appears to have been driven by a spurt of foreign portfolio inflows, but we still think that the currency will record a modest fall in the next couple... 31st January 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian pound to weaken, Gulf support for Lebanon Comments from the Central Bank of Egypt’s governor, Tarek Amer, earlier this week add weight to our view that the authorities will scale back support for the pound. This is likely to result in a... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi equities rally, strikes in Tunisia, Lebanese debt Saudi Arabia’s stock market has rallied over the past week or so, but we expect this to go into reverse. Meanwhile, public sector strikes taking place in Tunisia today highlight the scale of the... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanese debt restructuring, Saudi’s dollar bond sale Reports that Lebanon’s government is putting together a debt restructuring plan suggest that some of the risks we’ve previously warned about are crystallising. And there’s a good chance that this... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Regional growth to slow in 2019, Egypt rate cuts The raft of GDP figures released over the past week showed that, in aggregate, the MENA economies strengthened in Q3 of last year. But we think that a fresh slowdown is on the cards in 2019. Meanwhile... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
