Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does MbS’ promotion mean for Saudi Arabia? The appointment of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) as prime minister yesterday evening cements his role as the head of the government. The crown prince already held significant... 28th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External strains building in North Africa The Gulf countries have benefitted enormously from higher energy prices and will run large current account surpluses. But external positions have deteriorated in other parts of the region. That... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi mortgage lending a slow-burning risk Mortgage lending in Saudi Arabia has ramped up in recent years as the government has tried to push up homeownership among Saudi nationals. Banks are well positioned in the event of future property... 20th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy set for strongest growth in a decade Saudi Arabia’s economy enjoyed a strong Q2, growing by a rapid 12.2% y/y, and timely data point to a robust third quarter as well. However, the recent cautious approach taken by OPEC+ towards oil... 13th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external risks underline need for weaker pound Concerns over Egypt’s external position have grown due to the country’s wide current account deficit, rising short-term external debt and declining FX reserves. While some of the risks are mitigated... 6th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Five key questions on Egypt answered Egypt is facing growing external strains and downward pressure on the pound, with policymaking coming under increased scrutiny in recent weeks following the sudden resignation of central bank governor... 5th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update A revived Iran nuclear deal would tie OPEC’s hands A revived Iran nuclear deal would quickly bring an additional 1mn bpd of crude oil production online, which would directly weigh on global oil prices. But the bigger impact would be to make it less... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: the costs and benefits of a weaker pound We think that the Egyptian pound needs to fall a lot further which, in the near-term, will push up inflation and harm the sovereign debt position. But it will be key to boosting Egypt’s external... 25th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Amer’s resignation raises scrutiny of pound policy The resignation of Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Governor Tarek Amer points to a growing tension within policymaking circles on the best way to address the country’s external imbalances. We think the... 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The economic impact of the Qatar FIFA World Cup The 2022 Football World Cup that kicks off in November will provide a significant boost to Qatar’s economy in Q4, but we doubt that the economic legacy of the tournament will live up to officials’... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s LNG boost still a few years away With Russia tightening its squeeze on supply of gas to Europe, governments are turning their attention to other major gas exporters such as Qatar to try to fill the gap. But Qatar’s gas sector is... 9th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound has a lot further to fall Spillovers from the war in Ukraine have caused Egypt’s large current account deficit to widen this year and, with the country struggling to attract stable forms of external financing, officials will... 1st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy at the top of the pack The rapid headline 11.8% y/y GDP growth recorded in Saudi Arabia in Q2 masked underlying weakness in non-oil sectors of the economy. Even so, Saudi Arabia is a relative bright spot in the global... 1st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A strong first half of the year for the Saudi economy The Saudi economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade in Q1 and we think this strength will carry through to the rest of 2022. Our GDP growth forecast of 10% for this year lies well above the... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update SAMA likely has more to do to ease liquidity concerns Reports that the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) has injected liquidity into the banking sector appears to be a consequence of a lack of FX intervention (despite high oil prices), tight fiscal policy and... 30th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf a bright spot We think that rising oil production and high global energy prices will result in rapid GDP growth this year and next across the Gulf economies. Growth is likely to be well above consensus expectations... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read