Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EMs’ exposure to bank flows A key channel through which emerging markets could be affected by the strains in the global banking sector is if lending by foreign banks falls sharply. On this front, EMs’ vulnerabilities have eased... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of restored Saudi-Iran ties The restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran adds to signs that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which may help to reduce risk premia in financial assets in the... 13th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer spending to strengthen Household spending in Saudi Arabia appeared to soften in the final months of 2022, but surveys suggest that consumers are optimistic about the outlook. The backdrop of loose fiscal policy, an improved... 1st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: large fall in the dinar lies in store Tunisia’s fragile balance of payments of position has deteriorated further over the past year and the dinar appears increasingly overvalued. We think that the currency needs to fall by at least 30%... 8th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A temporary pause in Egypt’s tightening cycle The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) surprisingly left interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting but, with inflation likely to rise even further above the central bank’s target, we still think... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy losing steam Saudi Arabia’s economy enjoyed bumper growth in 2022, but there were signs that activity was slowing in the final months of the year and we expect this trend to continue into the early part of 2023. 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: will falls in the pound trigger a public debt crisis? The recent falls in the Egyptian pound pose a threat to Egypt’s fragile public debt dynamics but we think that the government will be able to muddle through. The key risk is that the government shifts... 18th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt, the pound, and competitiveness The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound today means that, in real trade-weighted terms, it is at its lowest level since the 2016 devaluation. The experience from that period is that the boost to Egypt’s... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pound fall a sign that officials are on right path The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound today, coming in the wake of last week’s move to ease FX restrictions, suggests that the authorities are starting to make good on their pledge to shift to a more... 4th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s external position better than rest of N. Africa Morocco has been hit hard by the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and, while its external strains aren’t anywhere near as sever as those in Egypt and Tunisia, we think the authorities will need to... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and Tunisia heading down different paths The recent IMF deals reached by governments in Egypt and Tunisia are positive developments and will help ease balance of payments strains in both countries. Egypt has already made progress with... 9th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s IMF deal: still more work to do The news that Tunisia has reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF over a $1.9bn financing package provides hope that the economy will avoid a messy balance of payments crisis. But there are still... 17th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC+ cut highlights Saudi shift away from the US Yesterday’s decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production quotas by 2mn bpd adds to signs that, in a world economy that is fracturing, Saudi Arabia is tilting away from the US and leaning towards a China... 6th October 2022 · 8 mins read
