Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s privatisation drive and lessons from history Egypt’s government is set to kick off its latest privatisation drive later this year, but its track record provides little hope that it will meet targets. The authorities are likely to retain a high... 6th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi set for bumper GDP growth this year Saudi Arabia’s economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade in Q1 and we think this strength will carry on over the rest of this year. The combination of rising oil output and the increasing... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi inflation to stay in check, risks lie to downside Headline inflation in Saudi Arabia rose to 2.3% y/y in April and we think that it will continue to accelerate over the coming months. Unlike in other parts of the emerging world, however, inflation... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What Sheikh Khalifa’s passing means for the UAE The passing of the UAE’s President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al Nayhan today is unlikely to alter the economic outlook with GDP set to grow rapidly amid stronger oil output and looser fiscal policy... 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external strains still a risk despite devaluation The war in Ukraine has compounded strains in Egypt’s balance of payments and prompted officials to devalue the pound. The key risk now is that the authorities revert to heavily managing the nominal... 9th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy on the up Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has strengthened in recent months and, with oil output set to be raised further, the economy will record its fastest rate of growth in over a decade in 2022. 19th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation and rates to rise much further Egyptian inflation rose to a near-three year high in March and will continue to pick up on the back of the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and last month’s devaluation. We now think interest rates... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon unlikely to meet IMF demands Lebanon has secured a staff-level agreement with the IMF, but we think that it is highly unlikely that policymakers will push through the long list of reforms that are needed to unlock that financing... 8th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia heading toward default Political developments and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have compounded concerns over Tunisia’s public finances and cemented our view that the government will default sooner rather than later... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Regional divergence to widen on back of Ukraine war The spillovers from the war in Ukraine will further drive divergence in economic growth across the Middle East and North Africa. The Gulf economies stand to benefit as oil production is likely to be... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt returns to orthodoxy with rate hike and devaluation The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision to hike interest rates by 100bp, to 9.25%, and devalue the pound by 10% against the dollar suggests that policymakers have finally woken up to the worsening... 21st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi, China and renminbi oil sales Were Saudi Arabia to accept renminbi for its oil exports to China, it would be a symbolic move but it would also run into a number of economic practicalities, especially given that the Kingdom could... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will Fed tightening affect the Gulf? Central banks in the Gulf will have to follow the US Federal Reserve in raising interest rates by virtue of their dollar pegs, which will weigh on domestic demand and recoveries in non-oil sectors... 16th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The war in Ukraine and Saudi oil policy Saudi Arabia has so far resisted pressure from the US to raise oil production in order to dampen prices but, with Russian oil production and exports set to be disrupted, we think that a move in this... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic recovery gets back on track After a small hit to activity earlier in the year on the back of the Omicron wave, Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery appears to have strengthened more recently. The Kingdom is not overly exposed... 8th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt, the war in Ukraine and wheat The Russia-Ukraine crisis has already pushed up global wheat prices and Egypt is particularly vulnerable due to its high dependency on imports from both countries. This could lead to a small widening... 3rd March 2022 · 4 mins read