Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Price pressures continue to ease in Saudi Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate fell for the seventh consecutive month in September, hitting a three-year low. This will help to ease fears that the economy is overheating, which, in turn... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Currency concerns keep Egyptian rates on hold Egypt’s central bank kept interest rates on hold today as concerns over the fragile external funding position continue to outweigh the need to stimulate an ailing economy. 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil sector struggling to gain momentum Our activity proxy for Saudi Arabia shows that the economy continues to slow, as growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors starts to ease. Overall GDP growth looks like it slowed to around 4% y/y in... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fall in commodity prices will bring some relief to Morocco Morocco’s current account deficit has been pushed up to a 27-year high by a combination of weaker export demand from the euro-zone and the higher cost of commodity imports. Nonetheless, an IMF funding... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fall in commodity prices will bring some relief to Morocco Morocco’s current account deficit has been pushed up to a 27-year high by a combination of weaker export demand from the euro-zone and the higher cost of commodity imports. Nonetheless, an IMF funding... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan: a new government, but no chance of economic reforms On the face of it, the appointment of a widely respected economist as Jordan’s new Prime Minister should help to kick-start much-needed economic and fiscal reforms in the country. But in practice we... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF deal needed to stop the rot in Egypt Today’s data from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) showing that foreign currency reserves fell in September highlight the importance of an IMF backstop when talks take place at the end of this month. 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and the thorny issue of devaluation Egypt’s talks with the IMF over a financing package are set to get underway this month. There are a number of major stumbling blocks, the most contentious of which is whether Egypt is forced to... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait rate cut unlikely to boost economic growth Today’s cut in Kuwait’s benchmark interest rate will do little to boost output growth. Instead, the economy is in desperate need of political stability and progress on the government’s development... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi PMI continues to buck the global trend September’s PMI data suggest that growth in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector continues to accelerate. But this contradicts other activity data, including our own proxy for the non-oil economy. 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Sep.) The combination of an improvement in political conditions and rising hopes of an IMF deal has boosted bond and equity markets in Egypt. But at the same time, the return of foreign investors will... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: New central bank rules positive in the long term New rules limiting the exposure of the UAE’s banks to government entities are unlikely to boost lending to the private sector in the immediate term. But in time, the change in regulations could... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Higher oil output to provide a boost to Saudi growth Saudi Arabia’s recent commitment to maintain oil output at record levels means that our forecast for GDP growth this year is looking too pessimistic. We now expect the economy to expand by around 4.5%... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: much depends on IMF deal as fiscal challenges mount The fact that the Egyptian government intends to increase public sector employment in the next fiscal year adds to our view that its fiscal deficit target for 2012/13 is too optimistic. We think that... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf’s bond rally last? The impressive rally in dollar-denominated bond markets across the GCC over the past year has seen yields in Qatar and Abu Dhabi hit record lows in recent months, while even those in debt-ridden Dubai... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi's non-oil private sector surprises on the upside The slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s annual GDP growth rate from 5.9% in Q1 to 5.5% in the second quarter was due to the fact that both the oil and government sectors slowed sharply. Meanwhile, the private... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read