Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf overheating fears fail to materialise The massive fiscal stimulus packages unveiled by Gulf economies in the wake of the Arab Spring raised fears at the time that they would lead to economic overheating and rising inflation. Fortunately... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Nov.) Egyptian financial markets have been battered this month amid a deepening constitutional crisis. 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound being supported at unsustainable levels President Morsi’s decision to grant himself sweeping powers has thrown Egypt into a constitutional crisis, the outcome of which is highly uncertain and will frame the near-term outlook for the economy... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Egypt's IMF programme News that Egypt’s government has reached a “staff-level” agreement with the IMF on a $4.8bn programme has greatly reduced the risk of a balance of payments crisis in the country. Radical policy... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown continues Our Saudi Activity Proxy shows that the economic slowdown continued at the end of the last quarter. Overall, it looks like GDP growth slowed to around 2.5% y/y in Q3 from 5.5% y/y in Q2. 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf economies well placed to weather global weakness The Gulf looks comparatively well placed to weather the further deterioration in the global economy that we expect in 2013. Government spending has increased significantly in recent years, but there... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Subsidy cuts likely to push Egypt inflation higher The latest data from Egypt paint a disappointing picture of weakening growth and rising inflation. And with subsidy cuts and tax hikes expected as conditions to any agreement with the IMF, headline... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: IMF deal closer, but devaluation still an issue Media reports suggesting that the Egyptian government could reach a deal with the IMF within the next few months is clearly good news. However, we have been here before and we suspect the issue of... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External financing continues to trouble resource-poor countries Talks between Egypt and the IMF this month have focused attention back onto the external financing requirements of the region’s resource-poor economies. But so long as their oil-rich neighbours... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi PMI continues to point to strong non-oil sector October’s PMI data suggest that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector continues to grow at a robust pace, but our own activity proxy – based on actual hard data – indicates that the economy has... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Oct.) The arrival of an IMF delegation in Egypt and hopes that a deal will soon be concluded have supported the local equity and bond markets over the past few months. Yet, this isn’t the first time that a... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Price pressures continue to ease in Saudi Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate fell for the seventh consecutive month in September, hitting a three-year low. This will help to ease fears that the economy is overheating, which, in turn... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Currency concerns keep Egyptian rates on hold Egypt’s central bank kept interest rates on hold today as concerns over the fragile external funding position continue to outweigh the need to stimulate an ailing economy. 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil sector struggling to gain momentum Our activity proxy for Saudi Arabia shows that the economy continues to slow, as growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors starts to ease. Overall GDP growth looks like it slowed to around 4% y/y in... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fall in commodity prices will bring some relief to Morocco Morocco’s current account deficit has been pushed up to a 27-year high by a combination of weaker export demand from the euro-zone and the higher cost of commodity imports. Nonetheless, an IMF funding... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fall in commodity prices will bring some relief to Morocco Morocco’s current account deficit has been pushed up to a 27-year high by a combination of weaker export demand from the euro-zone and the higher cost of commodity imports. Nonetheless, an IMF funding... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
