Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Does Egypt need an IMF deal? Egypt has muddled through without an IMF deal for over two years, as bilateral aid has staved off a full-blown balance of payments crisis. But this cannot go on forever. The longer Egypt goes without... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt refrains from hiking interest rates The Egyptian central bank’s decision to hold interest rates today came as a surprise, but with the country still on the brink of a full-blown balance-of-payments crisis we would not be surprised if... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian cabinet reshuffle doesn't change bigger picture The reshuffle of Egypt’s cabinet, including a complete overhaul of the government’s economic team, doesn’t change the bigger picture that achieving support from across the political spectrum for much... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs suggest growth divisions widening April’s PMI data paint a familiar picture of continued economic weakness in Egypt and continued rapid growth in the Gulf. 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Weaker oil production to weigh on Gulf growth We expect oil production in the Gulf to remain lower this year than in 2012, which will be a drag on annual GDP growth. But even so, we don’t think it will lead to a collapse in overall economic... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mounting risks for Egypt's banks Egyptian banks have been remarkably stable throughout the political upheaval of the past few years. If we’re right in thinking that Egypt’s economy will continue to muddle through without falling into... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE equities continue to soar Stock markets across the MENA region have outperformed other emerging markets since the start of the year. By far the strongest performers have been equity markets in the UAE. 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia's IMF deal underlines need for political consensus Tunisia’s IMF deal is a crucial step to helping the economy out of its post-revolution slump. But the agreement also underlines the need for political consensus in the Arab Spring countries in order... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for the MENA region? The recent fall in oil prices is unlikely to unduly trouble the Gulf States. Prices need to drop much further and stay there before they run fiscal deficits, and even then large savings and low debt... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi dollar peg here to stay for the long-term Concerns that Saudi Arabia’s dollar peg is no longer suitable in light of the country’s growing trade ties with Asia look wide of the mark. There are a myriad of other tools that Saudi policymakers... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Resilient Gulf unlikely to boost resource-poor economies The Gulf economies are on course to grow at a decent pace this year, but the boost to their resource-poor neighbours is likely to be limited. Trade and investment links are surprisingly small. Instead... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slows, but private sector still strong The Saudi economy slowed sharply in Q4, but the breakdown of the GDP data shows that the non-oil private sector remains robust. Looking ahead, fiscal stimulus and rapid credit growth should support... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation still on course to reach double digits Egyptian inflation edged down in March, but it has still risen sharply since the end of last year and we think it will reach double digits over the coming months. The irony is that the recent spike in... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf economies outperforming March’s PMI data suggest that the Gulf economies’ private sectors continue to grow at a robust pace. Meanwhile, there are signs that the downturn in Egypt has deepened as FX restrictions weigh on... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Further aid should help to stave off Egyptian default Continued delays to Egypt’s prospective IMF deal have raised the possibility of a default on its FX debt. A team from the Fund is due in Cairo tomorrow to discuss a financing package, but even if a... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bond yields spike in Egypt as IMF deal looks further away Yields on Egyptian dollar-denominated bonds have spiked as an IMF deal looks increasingly distant and concerns over the government’s fiscal position mount. 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
