Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Reflecting on President Morsi's first year President Morsi’s first year in office hasn’t been easy to say the least. Unemployment is up, the pound has fallen and the authorities are no closer to securing an IMF agreement. These promise to make... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian markets in turmoil Financial markets in Egypt have been hit by a triple whammy of rising political tensions, growing concerns over the fiscal position and the continued deadlock in negotiations with the IMF. Equities... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy appears to have slowed in Q1 Our Saudi Arabia GDP tracker suggests that the economy slowed to around 3.5% y/y in Q1. Encouragingly though, there are tentative signs that the slowdown bottomed out at the start of the second... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pound's devaluation has further to go In spite of the Central Bank of Egypt’s best efforts, it appears to be only a matter of time before the Egyptian pound breaks through 7/US$. And there is a growing risk that, without an IMF deal, the... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would the tapering of QE mean for the MENA region? Fears that the US Fed may begin to taper its third round of quantitative easing (QE) have led to a sell-off in emerging market assets over the past few weeks. The MENA region has escaped relatively... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MSCI reclassifications likely to have limited impact Financial markets have reacted positively to the news that MSCI has upgraded Qatar and the UAE to Emerging Market status. But we fear that the eventual benefit may be lower than some seem to expect. 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears of inflation and unrest to frustrate subsidy reform Subsidies are becoming increasingly unaffordable across the poorer parts of the MENA region. But the threat of higher inflation and social unrest is likely to frustrate efforts at subsidy reform. 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Youth unemployment likely to have risen further Two and a half years on from the Arab Spring uprisings, youth unemployment in the Middle East, which was a key trigger for the unrest, remains high. In fact, we suspect it may have risen over the past... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's government finances need to be brought under control Ongoing political uncertainty has led to a sharp deterioration in the Egyptian government’s finances. The measures required to put them on a more sustainable footing are politically sensitive. But... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Too early to say Egypt’s economy has turned the corner Although Egypt’s headline PMI rose sharply in May to reach its highest level in six months, we would caution against reading this as a sign that the economy has turned the corner. Meanwhile, PMIs for... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain's political upheaval to continue to drag on growth Political unrest, a fragile banking sector and a weak fiscal position are all likely to weigh on Bahrain’s economy over the next few years. As a result, we expect it to be one of the worst performers... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisian dinar falls on back of IMF deal The Tunisian dinar has been one of the worst performing EM currencies over the past couple of months. Meanwhile, equity markets in the Gulf have continued to rally. 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait's politics holding back investment A fresh bout of tensions between Kuwait’s parliament and the government reinforces our concerns that the country’s fractious politics is undermining the economy’s growth prospects. All told, we think... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tourism prospects remain poor The ongoing recession in the euro-zone, domestic political instability and the deepening conflict in Syria will weigh on tourism in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Tunisia. This, in turn, will be a drag on... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tourism prospects remain poor The ongoing recession in the euro-zone, domestic political instability and the deepening conflict in Syria will weigh on tourism in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Tunisia. This, in turn, will be a drag on... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil-rich economies outperformance not ending, for now at least We are upbeat on the longer-term growth prospects for the resource-poor MENA economies compared with their oil-rich Gulf neighbours. But even though the region’s two largest economies, Egypt (resource... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
