Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt playing with fire The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) opted to leave interest rates unchanged at Thursday evening’s MPC meeting and the lack of comment on the pound will only add to investor concerns about the commitment... 19th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt sovereign default worries mount Fears among investors have continued to grow that Egypt’s government will default on its debt in the coming years although, for now at least, there remains a path to avoid such an outcome. Taking that... 18th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Gulf: notes from the ground We were in the Gulf last week visiting clients and this Update takes stock of the key talking points that emerged, from a sense of optimism surrounding the Gulf economies to despair and fear regarding... 11th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy contracts in Q1, set for a weak 2023 Flash GDP figures showed that Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted in Q1 on the back of OPEC+-agreed oil output cuts, but growth in the non-oil economy remained strong. The “voluntary” oil production... 9th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s BoP improves, but pound pressure to persist Egypt’s balance of payments (BoP) position strengthened markedly late last year, but policymakers’ reluctance to live up to their reform promises appears to be causing capital inflows to slow to a... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The OPEC+ oil cuts and what they mean for MENA The surprise announcement of a further 1.66mn bpd cut to oil output by OPEC+ will reduce GDP growth mechanically in the Gulf economies by around 1-2%-pts this year, although the corresponding rise in... 3rd April 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EMs’ exposure to bank flows A key channel through which emerging markets could be affected by the strains in the global banking sector is if lending by foreign banks falls sharply. On this front, EMs’ vulnerabilities have eased... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of restored Saudi-Iran ties The restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran adds to signs that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which may help to reduce risk premia in financial assets in the... 13th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer spending to strengthen Household spending in Saudi Arabia appeared to soften in the final months of 2022, but surveys suggest that consumers are optimistic about the outlook. The backdrop of loose fiscal policy, an improved... 1st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: large fall in the dinar lies in store Tunisia’s fragile balance of payments of position has deteriorated further over the past year and the dinar appears increasingly overvalued. We think that the currency needs to fall by at least 30%... 8th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A temporary pause in Egypt’s tightening cycle The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) surprisingly left interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting but, with inflation likely to rise even further above the central bank’s target, we still think... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy losing steam Saudi Arabia’s economy enjoyed bumper growth in 2022, but there were signs that activity was slowing in the final months of the year and we expect this trend to continue into the early part of 2023. 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read