Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Taking stock of Saudi Arabia’s migrant crackdown Saudi Arabia’s wide-scale crackdown on illegal migrant workers seems unlikely to have the desired effect of raising the employment of Saudi nationals in the private sector. In the short term, it runs... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: further rate cuts may come in 2014 In spite of October’s rise in inflation, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to cut interest rates today. It looks like the decision was prompted by the weakness of recent hard activity data, as... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rebound in oil sector supports Saudi Q3 GDP growth Saudi Arabian Q3 GDP data showed that growth picked up as a rebound in the oil sector more than offset a slowdown in the rest of the economy. Looking ahead, growth may accelerate over the coming... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian economy may be finding its feet November's PMI data provide further evidence that the Egyptian economy may be finding its feet after a tumultuous summer. Meanwhile, the Saudi PMI pointed to a pick-up in growth in the non-oil sector... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s Expo to boost growth, but optimism may be overdone Having won the right to host the 2020 World Expo, Dubai's economy looks set to benefit from higher investment and tourist arrivals. But we're concerned about the probable rise in corporate debt and... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai equities hit five-year high as World Expo vote looms Dubai’s equity market hit a five-year high this month amid growing optimism surrounding the Emirate’s economic rebound. Confidence may be given an extra boost if, as is widely expected, Dubai wins the... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Risks from rapid Saudi credit growth look manageable The rapid expansion of credit in Saudi Arabia is beginning to look like a cause for concern. If sustained, it could be followed by a rise in non-performing loans. Nonetheless, the country seems well... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s exchange rate pegs? The non-oil producing MENA countries have historically tended to back up their currency pegs to the US dollar by maintaining a level of FX reserves sufficient to cover the monetary base. But the... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Public jobs no solution to high MENA unemployment High unemployment rates have grabbed the headlines in the MENA region, not only as a catalyst for the Arab Spring revolutions but also for prompting a backlash against expatriate workers in the region... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Subsidy cuts – lessons from Jordan The swingeing fuel subsidy cuts imposed by Jordan's government a year ago have, so far at least, made few inroads in narrowing the country's fiscal deficit. Measures to replace subsidies have tended... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth accelerates in the third quarter Our Saudi GDP Tracker suggests that the economic rebound continued in Q3, with output rising by around 5% y/y. The oil sector is growing once again while growth in the non-oil sector remains fairly... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation on course to fall back next year Egyptian inflation ticked up again last month on the back of a further rise in food inflation. But price pressures look set to ease next year which could bring interest rate cuts back on to the agenda... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf’s non-oil growth fuelled by hydrocarbons Rapid growth in non-oil sectors has raised some hopes that the Gulf countries may finally be diversifying away from a reliance on hydrocarbons. But as we explain in this Watch, the recent expansion of... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tentative signs that the worst may be over for Egypt October’s PMI data provide the first signs that the Egyptian economy may be emerging from the worst of the fallout from the “second revolution”. Meanwhile, the Gulf economies are growing at a healthy... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rising inflation behind decision to keep Egypt rates on hold The accompanying press release provided little justification as to why, having eased policy at its previoustwo meetings, the Egyptian central bank left interest rates on hold today. We suspect that... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait reform is likely to be a long journey Comments by Kuwait’s ruling Emir ahead of the reopening of the National Assembly suggest that the government has recognised the need for wholesale economic reform. Even so, we think that reform... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
