Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt to let the pound fall sooner rather than later The Egyptian pound has held steady in recent months but we think that policymakers will need to loosen their grip on the currency in the not-too-distant future. All told, we forecast the pound to drop... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: weakness in oil sector set to continue Growth in the Saudi Arabian economy appears to have stabilised in Q3, as a pick-up in activity in the non-oil sector offset a further slowdown in the oil sector. But in spite of the relative strength... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia election: return to political stability to support growth The victory for Nidaa Tounes in Tunisia’s parliamentary election is likely to raise hopes that economic reforms are in the pipeline. Perhaps more importantly, the fact that the election passed... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Low oil prices provide relief for MENA’s resource-poor economies In contrast to the Gulf, the rest of the MENA region stands to gain from the recent fall in oil prices. That being said, a period of low oil prices alone won’t be sufficient to reduce these economies’... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Equities in the Gulf hit by falling oil prices Despite recovering a little in recent days, it’s been a torrid month for stock markets across the MENA region. In part, this has reflected the broader sell-off in EM financial markets. But in the Gulf... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rates left unchanged as recovery trumps high inflation The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision to keep interest rates on hold today came as little surprise. Inflation remains high but policymakers are undoubtedly wary of tightening monetary policy due to... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lower oil prices not a major headache for the Gulf The ongoing slide in oil prices doesn’t pose too much of a threat to the Gulf economies. But it does reinforce the point that a key driver of the region’s economies over the past decade is weakening... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Underlying inflation pressures building in parts of the Gulf In aggregate, inflation in the Gulf countries has remained stable over the past few months, helped by easing food inflation. But there are signs that core price pressures are starting to build... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget deficits not a disaster, but spending growth to slow Saudi Arabia’s fiscal position looks set to swing from surplus to deficit in the near-future. This would by no means be a disaster as the authorities could easily finance budget shortfalls for many... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisian elections may prove to be the spur for reform Upcoming elections in Tunisia are another important step along the country’s long and bumpy path to democracy. If the elections pass smoothly, as seems likely, this should at the very least provide a... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Non-oil sectors in the Gulf performing well September’s ‘whole economy’ PMI data suggest that non-oil sectors in the Gulf, and in Saudi Arabia in particular, ended the third quarter on a strong note. Meanwhile, the survey provided further... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s economy to strengthen in 2015-16 Moroccan GDP growth continued to be affected by a slump in the agricultural sector in Q2. But other parts of the economy are performing well and we still think that Morocco will be North Africa’s best... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy shifts up a gear 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil sector drives sharp Q2 slowdown in Saudi Arabia The Saudi Arabian economy slowed sharply between Q1 and Q2, largely due to weakness in the oil sector. The data also provided further signs that Saudi consumers may be struggling. Looking ahead, it’s... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Energy subsidy reform in the Gulf is likely to be slow-going Large energy subsidies in the GCC lead to a number of distortions in their economies, including smaller current account and fiscal surpluses as well as weaker investment in the non-hydrocarbon sector... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Less to the narrowing of Egypt’s trade deficit than meets the eye The latest headline trade figures from Egypt suggest that the country’s trade deficit has narrowed sharply over the past year, reducing a key economic vulnerability. However, by taking a closer look... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
