Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian equities hit seven-year high, pound falls The Egyptian stock market has rallied in the past month, buoyed by the economy’s brightening prospects and hopes that the central bank’s decision to loosen its grip on the pound marks a shift towards... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Egyptian pound has further to run We think the depreciation of the Egyptian pound over the past week has further to go and the currency might plausibly weaken to around 8.25/US$ by the end of this year, a 10% fall against the dollar... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of King Abdullah’s passing The passing away of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has raised concerns about the issue of succession and whether this might lead to disruptions to policymaking in the Kingdom. The key point, though, is... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy won’t collapse but growth will soften in 2015-16 Concerns that the plunge in oil prices will push the Saudi economy into a deep recession this year look overdone. We expect growth to slow this year and next, but a collapse in output looks unlikely. 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound to fall further as central bank loosens its grip The small fall in the Egyptian pound in the past couple of days is significant given that the central bank had kept a tight grip on the currency since last summer and we think that the pound’s... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank becomes latest to cut interest rates In a surprise decision today, Egypt’s central bank (CBE) became the latest in the emerging world to cut interest rates. Although the slide in oil prices is unlikely to have much direct impact on... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy ended last year on a weaker note Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Saudi economy eased towards the end of last year, but there aren’t any signs that the plunge in oil prices has caused activity to collapse. Looking ahead... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How the fall in oil prices will benefit North Africa We’ve written extensively in recent months about the losses the Gulf economies face in light of the plunge in oil prices. But in this Watch we explain why the North African economies of Egypt, Morocco... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf on course to post current account deficit this year We’ve argued for some time that the Gulf economies are set to run a current account deficit this year for the first time in over a decade, and the latest plunge in oil prices means this deficit could... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2015 budget suggests authorities calm about oil price fall Saudi Arabia’s 2015 budget statement doesn’t provide a clear steer about the path for actual government spending. Reading between the lines, it looks like the authorities will keep spending restrained... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for Dubai’s debts? The recent plunge in Dubai’s stock market, coming alongside a drop in oil prices, has rekindled fears that the Emirate could face renewed problems with its large corporate debts. For our part, we... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equities: big falls now happened, but sharp rebound unlikely In spite of small rises today, equity markets in the Gulf have tumbled over the past month and all of the gains made earlier this year have now been wiped out. While we suspect that the big falls have... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks in the Gulf well placed to weather low oil prices The slump in oil prices has caused concerns to emerge about the exposure of financial institutions to energy companies, but for banks in the Gulf this risk seems small. They are more vulnerable to a... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A soft start for Saudi Arabia’s economy in Q4 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy started Q4 on a slightly weaker note. We don’t think that the latest fall in oil prices will cause growth to collapse but with fiscal policy set to... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian rates on hold amid high inflation The Central Bank of Egypt left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 9.25% today and, with growth picking up and inflation still high, it looks unlikely that July’s rate hike will be reversed any... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equities take another tumble Low oil prices have continued to take their toll on equity markets in the Gulf. Meanwhile, pressure on the Egyptian pound has intensified over the past month and we think the authorities will need to... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read