Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on the escalating conflict in Yemen The unfolding crisis in Yemen and the commencement of air strikes by Saudi Arabia and its allies on the Houthi rebels has raised concerns of a broader regional conflict. We suspect that the worst of... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What did we take away from Egypt’s investor conference? Egypt’s recent Economic and Development Conference, which was seen as a milestone in the government’s strategy to raise much-needed investment, saw the announcement of further financial support from... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Floating currencies in the Gulf a long way off Recent calls for the Gulf countries to ditch their dollar pegs and allow their currencies to float are likely to fall on deaf ears. While there are some arguments in favour of shifting to more... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia makes weak start to the year Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed to under 2% y/y at the start of this year. Consumer spending may receive a boost over the coming months following King Salman’s... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf public investment projects to take the hit from low oil prices The Gulf countries should be able to stomach low prices for the next few years at least, but further down the line some form of adjustment is likely to be needed and we think that fiscal policy will... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: fears of riyal devaluation overdone We think fears that the plunge in oil prices since the middle of last year will force Saudi Arabia to ditch its dollar peg and devalue the riyal are overdone. The Kingdom has plenty of resources to... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt to hold off from rate cuts until Q3 After a surprise rate cut last month, the Egyptian central bank left interest rates unchanged today. Looking ahead, we think that policymakers will hold off from lowering rates again until the direct... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equity markets find some support from recovery in oil prices A pick-up in oil prices has supported a small rebound in Gulf stock markets over the past month but, further out, hopes of a sharp rally are likely to be disappointed. Meanwhile, having allowed the... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Weaker growth the new norm for Saudi Arabia The latest data from Saudi Arabia suggest that economic activity was steady, but unspectacular, at the end of last year and we expect growth to remain relatively sluggish at 1.5-2.0% in 2015-16. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lower oil prices start to weigh on FX reserves in the Gulf The plunge in oil prices means that current account positions in parts of the Gulf have slipped from surplus into deficit. In these countries, FX reserves are now being drawn upon to finance external... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman to muddle through in 2015-16 but fiscal squeeze looming Oman is one of the few Gulf States that isn’t well placed to weather a period of low oil prices and, as a result, a fiscal squeeze will be needed. The authorities may be able to muddle through over... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian equities hit seven-year high, pound falls The Egyptian stock market has rallied in the past month, buoyed by the economy’s brightening prospects and hopes that the central bank’s decision to loosen its grip on the pound marks a shift towards... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Egyptian pound has further to run We think the depreciation of the Egyptian pound over the past week has further to go and the currency might plausibly weaken to around 8.25/US$ by the end of this year, a 10% fall against the dollar... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of King Abdullah’s passing The passing away of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has raised concerns about the issue of succession and whether this might lead to disruptions to policymaking in the Kingdom. The key point, though, is... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy won’t collapse but growth will soften in 2015-16 Concerns that the plunge in oil prices will push the Saudi economy into a deep recession this year look overdone. We expect growth to slow this year and next, but a collapse in output looks unlikely. 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound to fall further as central bank loosens its grip The small fall in the Egyptian pound in the past couple of days is significant given that the central bank had kept a tight grip on the currency since last summer and we think that the pound’s... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
