Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian equities shrug off corruption investigation In a mixed month for the MENA region’s equity markets, Egypt’s EGX30 proved to be the best performer despite the launch of a corruption investigation within the cabinet. In contrast, Saudi Arabia’s... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria: low oil prices force authorities into action Algeria was ill-prepared to confront a period of low oil prices and, as we warned might happen, the authorities have reacted by letting the dinar weaken, while a sharp fiscal squeeze is now on the... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates amid Fed uncertainty The decision by the Egyptian central bank (CBE) to keep its benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 8.75% today was probably a close call and we suspect that policymakers were swayed from... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Slowdown on the horizon in Saudi Arabia Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to grow by over 5% y/y at the start of Q3. However, this is likely to be as good as it gets for some time – we expect growth to slow over... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fed rate hikes take a backseat to low oil prices in the Gulf The Gulf’s commitment to dollar pegs mean that rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve will be imported to the region, adding to the headwinds facing economic growth. But this is a secondary concern... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Devaluation of Egyptian pound looking increasingly likely We have argued for some time that Egypt needs to devalue the pound and there are signs that policymakers are (belatedly) coming round to this view. We expect the currency to reach 8.25/US$ by the end... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How big a deal is the Zohr gas field for Egypt? The recent announcement by Italian energy group Eni that it has discovered a “super giant” gas field off the coast of Egypt has been billed as a game changer for the country. However, as we explain in... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How large is Saudi Arabia’s fiscal buffer? With oil prices still languishing at multi-year lows, Saudi Arabia’s budget position – which looks set to post a shortfall of close to 20% of GDP this year – has come under increasing scrutiny in... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s behind the apparent weakness in Egypt’s economy? Egypt’s economy has slowed sharply and by more than we expected over the first half of this year. But we think some of the constraints on growth will start to lift in the coming quarters. 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf unlikely to be flustered by latest drop in oil prices The drop in oil prices over the past couple of months is unlikely to cause policymakers in the GCC countries to panic. The region’s large reserves mean that most countries are under little immediate... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA equity markets take a bruising Equity markets across the MENA region have been hit hard over the past month against the backdrop of the general turmoil in global financial markets and a fresh drop in oil prices. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Buoyant oil sector supports strong growth in Saudi Arabia Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to grow by over 5% y/y at the end of Q2, supported by strong growth in the oil sector. However, with Iranian oil set to return to the... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE’s planned sales tax a positive step Reports that the UAE is planning to introduce a sales tax, coming soon after some fuel prices were deregulated, add to the impression that it is taking fiscal consolidation more seriously than the... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to make of Saudi Arabia’s return to the bond market? Media reports suggesting that the Saudi central bank will issue bonds in greater volumes over the rest of this year have raised fresh concerns about the government’s seemingly relaxed response to the... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How big a deal is the new Suez Canal for Egypt? The new Suez Canal, due to be inaugurated this week, could in theory bring major economic benefits to the Egyptian economy. However, the government’s projections appear to be based on implausibly... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rate cuts likely to come onto the agenda The Egyptian central bank kept its benchmark O/N deposit rate unchanged at 8.75% late last night, but with inflation set to fall sharply, rate cuts are likely to come back onto the cards. We have... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
