Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran sanctions relief: assessing the impact Sanctions relief should support a revival of Iran’s economy and a short period in which it enjoys growth of as much as 6-8%. But there is unlikely to be much impact on the rest of the region, either... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi privatisations point to gradual adjustment to cheap oil A privatisation drive in Saudi Arabia looks increasingly likely and we estimate that the government might be able to raise between $75bn and $100bn (12-15% of GDP) from asset sales. This wouldn’t be... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation and tourism troubles spell slowdown in 2016 The latest Egyptian economic data, on the face of it, show that the economy held up well in 2015, but the underlying picture is actually pretty weak. With the tourism sector in the midst of a fresh... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mohammed bin Salman fleshes out Saudi Arabia’s economic plans In an interview with The Economist published earlier today, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (or MbS, as he is known locally) outlined encouragingly ambitious fiscal and reform... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia chooses fiscal squeeze rather than devaluation The fresh drop in oil prices has once again prompted speculation that Saudi Arabia will follow other major oil producers and devalue its currency. But we think this will only be used as a last resort... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget sets Kingdom up for fiscal squeeze Saudi Arabia’s budget for 2016 released at the end of last year sets the Kingdom up for a period of fiscal consolidation. The plans outlined will help to rein in the country’s large twin budget and... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh slump in oil prices weighs on Gulf equity markets Equity markets in the Gulf have fallen further over the past month, dragged down by the renewed slump in oil prices. Elsewhere, Egypt’s central bank has maintained a tight grip on the pound but... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth eases, further slowdown likely in 2016 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi Arabian economy weakened a little in October and, with fiscal policy set to tighten, we expect much slower growth in 2016. 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Little incentive for Saudi Arabia to abandon oil strategy Last week’s OPEC meeting ended with little change to the cartel’s policy, but rumours suggest that Saudi Arabia is softening its stance on production cuts. While we’re probably at the point where the... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt getting to grips with its foreign currency problems Egypt’s fragile external position has come under the spotlight once again, but the latest signs are that policymakers are trying to ease foreign currency restrictions. The upshot is that a devaluation... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect from Saudi Arabia’s upcoming budget Saudi Arabia’s upcoming budget statement will be scrutinised even more than usual and we suspect (and hope) that it will provide more realistic forecasts as well as a clear agenda for fiscal... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian equities drop, yields rise as external concerns resurface Renewed concerns over Egypt’s external position, coupled with fresh security fears in light of the Russian plane crash in the Sinai, have caused the country’s equity market to slump and dollar bond... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: riyal devaluation likely to be a last resort Speculation over a devaluation of the Saudi riyal has mounted in the past few days but we think such a move is likely to be used as a last resort. Instead, we think cuts to capital spending are likely... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Capital spending likely to bear brunt of austerity in the Gulf The Gulf countries are in a strong position to cope with low oil prices, but some form of adjustment will be needed over the coming years. We expect tighter fiscal policy to do most of the work and we... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mounting signs that Egypt’s exchange rate policy will shift There is growing talk that Egypt is in the midst of a currency crisis and, while we think some of this may be a bit overdone, developments over the past month or so suggest that a shift towards a more... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s economy shifts down a gear Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed sharply in September. With a fiscal squeeze expected to get underway soon, this is likely to be a sign of things to come over the next... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
