Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt devaluation a step in the right direction The decision this morning by the Central Bank of Egypt to devalue the pound and move to a more flexible exchange rate regime is a positive step and should help to improve the country’s balance of... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Gulf finance budget deficits this year? Low oil prices mean that budget deficits will persist for some time in the GCC and we think these countries will shift away from a reliance on savings towards issuing debt to plug the gap this year... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in Egyptian inflation to a six-month low of 9.1% y/y in February may make policymakers more confident to push ahead with a devaluation of the pound. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Storm clouds gather over Lebanon Recent announcements by the Gulf countries that they will cut off financial support to Lebanon and slap a travel ban on the country are likely to have a larger political than economic impact. But if... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iranian elections a positive step, but reasons to be cautious Recent elections in Iran have provided a positive endorsement of President Rouhani’s reformist policies ahead of next year’s presidential vote and should ease fears that Tehran will renege on its... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy ended last year on a weak note Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed sharply at the end of last year and, as the fiscal squeeze begins to bite, we expect growth to weaken to just 1.5% this year. 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Uptick in oil prices supports Gulf financial markets The gradual rise in oil prices from the lows reached in January has underpinned a rebound in equity markets in the Gulf this month and dampened speculation that these countries will be forced to... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil slump unlikely to cause major problems in Gulf banking sectors The slump in oil prices has raised fears that banks in the Gulf could come under strain, as governments withdraw deposits, foreign exchange reserves are depleted and assets begin to sour. But, while... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to stay in double digits for most of this year Egyptian inflation came in at 10.1% y/y in January and, with a looming devaluation of the pound and the government preparing the ground for a fresh round of subsidy cuts, it is likely to remain in (or... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco to slow in 2016, but medium-term outlook bright A drought is likely to weigh heavily on Morocco’s agricultural sector this year and headline GDP growthlooks set to slow to around 2.5%, down from more than 4% in 2015. Nonetheless, with twin budget... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Weaker growth looms in the Gulf A period of fiscal austerity means that we expect the Gulf economies to slow this year, a view that not too long ago was non-consensus but is now relatively mainstream . Both the consensus and the IMF... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Where in the Gulf is the threat of devaluation greatest? We have argued for some time that the Gulf economies are in a strong position to weather a period of low oil prices and, despite speculation in markets, that dollar pegs won’t be abandoned. Bahrain... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: interest rates on hold, devaluation increasingly likely The Central Bank of Egypt kept its benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 9.25% today as an influx of financial support has eased immediate concerns over the country’s external position and... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf financial markets battered by fresh slump in oil prices The start of 2016 has brought more of the same for financial markets in the Gulf – equity markets have fallen, bond yields have risen and speculation has continued to mount that currencies will be... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Would the Gulf benefit from currency devaluation? The latest drop in oil prices has intensified speculation that the Gulf economies might abandon their dollar pegs but there remain good reasons to think that this would achieve little in terms of... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth steady in Q4, but set to slow sharply this year Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Saudi Arabia’s economy was broadly stable between October and November but, with a fiscal squeeze underway, growth looks set to weaken this year. We remain... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
