Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s public finances leave a lot to be desired The Egyptian government faces a tough task in meeting its budget deficit target for the upcoming fiscal year and, worryingly, there seems to be a growing sense that the authorities are wavering on... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Prince’s comments don’t indicate major change Comments today by Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in an interview with Bloomberg confirm our view that Saudi policymakers are comfortable with a period of low oil prices. What’s... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt devaluation buoys local markets The Egyptian central bank’s decision to (finally) devalue the pound this month has raised hopes of an improvement in the country’s balance of payments position and faster growth, resulting in a jump... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt devaluation: assessing the impact on balance sheets The recent devaluation of the Egyptian pound will create winners and losers within the country through its impact on balance sheets. Households and commercial banks stand to gain from a rise in the... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pound devaluation prompts aggressive rate hike The Central Bank of Egypt’s larger-than-expected 150bp in its overnight deposit rate, to 10.75%, was a pre-emptive move to limit the inflationary impact from the recent devaluation of the pound. We... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt devaluation a step in the right direction The decision this morning by the Central Bank of Egypt to devalue the pound and move to a more flexible exchange rate regime is a positive step and should help to improve the country’s balance of... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Gulf finance budget deficits this year? Low oil prices mean that budget deficits will persist for some time in the GCC and we think these countries will shift away from a reliance on savings towards issuing debt to plug the gap this year... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in Egyptian inflation to a six-month low of 9.1% y/y in February may make policymakers more confident to push ahead with a devaluation of the pound. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Storm clouds gather over Lebanon Recent announcements by the Gulf countries that they will cut off financial support to Lebanon and slap a travel ban on the country are likely to have a larger political than economic impact. But if... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iranian elections a positive step, but reasons to be cautious Recent elections in Iran have provided a positive endorsement of President Rouhani’s reformist policies ahead of next year’s presidential vote and should ease fears that Tehran will renege on its... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy ended last year on a weak note Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed sharply at the end of last year and, as the fiscal squeeze begins to bite, we expect growth to weaken to just 1.5% this year. 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Uptick in oil prices supports Gulf financial markets The gradual rise in oil prices from the lows reached in January has underpinned a rebound in equity markets in the Gulf this month and dampened speculation that these countries will be forced to... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil slump unlikely to cause major problems in Gulf banking sectors The slump in oil prices has raised fears that banks in the Gulf could come under strain, as governments withdraw deposits, foreign exchange reserves are depleted and assets begin to sour. But, while... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to stay in double digits for most of this year Egyptian inflation came in at 10.1% y/y in January and, with a looming devaluation of the pound and the government preparing the ground for a fresh round of subsidy cuts, it is likely to remain in (or... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco to slow in 2016, but medium-term outlook bright A drought is likely to weigh heavily on Morocco’s agricultural sector this year and headline GDP growthlooks set to slow to around 2.5%, down from more than 4% in 2015. Nonetheless, with twin budget... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Weaker growth looms in the Gulf A period of fiscal austerity means that we expect the Gulf economies to slow this year, a view that not too long ago was non-consensus but is now relatively mainstream . Both the consensus and the IMF... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read