Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi reshuffle unlikely to result in drastic change The government reshuffle in Saudi Arabia announced over the weekend is unlikely to herald a major shift in economic policy, although it may strengthen the Kingdom’s commitment to its oil market... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Further signs that the Saudi economy is struggling Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to slow sharply at the start of this year, with the non-oil sector suffering under the weight of fiscal austerity. The risks to our long... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pressures on pound build, further devaluation on the cards Since March’s devaluation, Egypt’s central bank has been hesitant to let the pound fall further, but pressures are building and we think a further devaluation is on the cards. We expect the pound to... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt central bank holds rates, but further hikes likely soon The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept its overnight deposit rate at 10.75% today as it awaits further evidence of the impact on inflation from last month’s devaluation of the pound. With inflation set... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Don’t get carried away with Saudi Arabia’s reform plans Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has created a buzz with his ambitious plans to transform the Kingdom’s economy, but we would caution against getting carried away. The... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” provides few new details The Saudi government’s “Vision 2030” plan outlined today has been welcomed by the local financial markets, but it provided few fresh details on the reform agenda and missed key issues such as... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rebound in oil prices supports Gulf financial markets Financial markets across the Gulf have performed well over the past month, supported by the continued recovery in oil prices. Meanwhile, Egyptian markets have been buoyed by last month’s decision by... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: CBE’s deficit financing adds to pressures on the pound The Egyptian government seems to be increasingly reliant on the central bank to finance the budget deficit. If this persists, inflation is likely to remain elevated and downward pressure on the pound... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia digs its heels in at Doha Saudi Arabia’s insistence that Iran agree to freeze oil production scuppered any chance of a deal in Doha at the weekend and suggests that the Kingdom is in no mood to abandon its oil market strategy... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy feeling the strains of austerity Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed sharply at the start of this year as the impact of fiscal austerity weighed heavily on the non-oil sector. Meanwhile, today’s decision by... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: rapid credit growth starting to ring alarm bells Qatar has been one of the best performing economies in the MENA region over the past decade and one of the key drivers of this has been the rapid growth of bank lending. However, we are concerned that... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s public finances leave a lot to be desired The Egyptian government faces a tough task in meeting its budget deficit target for the upcoming fiscal year and, worryingly, there seems to be a growing sense that the authorities are wavering on... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Prince’s comments don’t indicate major change Comments today by Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in an interview with Bloomberg confirm our view that Saudi policymakers are comfortable with a period of low oil prices. What’s... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt devaluation buoys local markets The Egyptian central bank’s decision to (finally) devalue the pound this month has raised hopes of an improvement in the country’s balance of payments position and faster growth, resulting in a jump... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt devaluation: assessing the impact on balance sheets The recent devaluation of the Egyptian pound will create winners and losers within the country through its impact on balance sheets. Households and commercial banks stand to gain from a rise in the... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pound devaluation prompts aggressive rate hike The Central Bank of Egypt’s larger-than-expected 150bp in its overnight deposit rate, to 10.75%, was a pre-emptive move to limit the inflationary impact from the recent devaluation of the pound. We... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
