Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt keeps rates on hold…for now News that Egypt is on the brink of receiving an IMF deal (and the subsequent easing of pressure on the pound) provided the central bank with a window of opportunity to pause its tightening cycle today... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equities lag behind Most stock markets in the Gulf have edged up over the past month, but their performance looks poor compared with the rises seen elsewhere in the emerging world. Meanwhile, expectations of another... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh devaluation of the Egyptian pound just a matter of time The Egyptian pound has been held steady since March’s devaluation, but persistent strains in the balance of payments mean that it needs to fall further. Recent shifts towards more orthodox... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Strains in Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments starting to ease Saudi Arabia’s current account position deteriorated at the start of this year due to lower oil prices, but even taking this into account the underlying balance of payments position improved. We... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Hard evidence points to weakness in Saudi economy The relative strength of the PMI readings from Saudi Arabia have prompted some to argue that the economy is holding up well. However, our GDP Tracker suggests that the economy is struggling and we... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will Egypt turn to the IMF? Rumours have circulated again that Egypt is seeking a deal with the IMF and, as we argue in this Watch, an agreement is now looking more likely than at any point in the past five years. A financing... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian markets suffer amid balance of payments concerns Egyptian financial markets have been hit in the past month amid ongoing concerns over the country’s balance of payments position. Equities have fallen, spreads on dollar bonds have widened and... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stagnates as austerity takes its toll Our GDP Tracker suggests that tighter fiscal policy is taking a heavier toll on the economy than even we had anticipated. We will revisit our forecasts soon, but the short point is that expectations... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rates hiked as inflation jumps, currency pressures mount Today’s 100bp rate hike in Egyptian interest rates was larger than even our own above-consensus forecast and, with inflation likely to rise further in the coming months and the central bank willing to... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pressures on Saudi riyal should start to ease Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that Saudi Arabia will devalue the riyal. For our part, we have long argued that policymakers would be loath to abandon the dollar peg. And, as we explain in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s “National Transformation Plan” Saudi Arabia’s “National Transformation Plan” represents a credible effort by the authorities to flesh out some of their policies as they look to overhaul the Kingdom’s economy over the coming years... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equity markets stumble, despite oil rally Equity markets across the Gulf have struggled over the past month, in spite of a further recovery in oil prices. At the same time, speculation has increased that Saudi Arabia will devalue the riyal... 30th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: riyal devaluation a last resort In spite of the backdrop of the recent recovery in oil prices, which broke through US$50pb today for the first time this year, speculation has mounted that Saudi Arabia will devalue its currency. We... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s tourism sector stares into the abyss Egypt’s tourism sector has had a torrid time in recent months and last week’s crash of an EgyptAir plane has (although the cause is still unknown) reinforced security concerns. Overall, we think... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: NT outlook subdued, but LT prospects improving Growth in the Tunisian economy is likely to pick up in the coming quarters following a difficult 2015, but we think the recovery will, in the near-term, be weak. Medium-term prospects are brighter and... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the rest of MENA weather the slowdown in the Gulf? Economic growth in the Gulf countries has slowed sharply in recent months and this has raised concerns of negative spillovers into the other MENA economies. In this Watch, we argue that, for most... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
