Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Slump in Saudi economy deepens Our GDP Tracker suggests that the slump in Saudi Arabia’s economy has deepened, with output falling by more than 2% y/y in June. A recovery is likely to get underway over the rest of this year and in... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian financial markets welcome IMF deal Financial markets in Egypt have rallied over the past month after the government reached an agreement with the IMF over a US$12bn financing package. Equities have risen, spreads on dollar-denominated... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE set to embark on gradual recovery The UAE’s economy is likely to record its slowest growth since 2010 this year, but the country’s strong balance sheet means that it should embark on a recovery in 2017-18. Indeed, we expect it to be... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy probably contracted in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy is suffering heavily under the weight of fiscal austerity, with output contracting by around 2% y/y as of May. IMF and consensus expectations for... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and the IMF: five questions (and answers) Egypt’s financial markets have responded extremely positively to the news that the government is close to securing an IMF deal, although at this stage few details about the negotiations are actually... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt keeps rates on hold…for now News that Egypt is on the brink of receiving an IMF deal (and the subsequent easing of pressure on the pound) provided the central bank with a window of opportunity to pause its tightening cycle today... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equities lag behind Most stock markets in the Gulf have edged up over the past month, but their performance looks poor compared with the rises seen elsewhere in the emerging world. Meanwhile, expectations of another... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh devaluation of the Egyptian pound just a matter of time The Egyptian pound has been held steady since March’s devaluation, but persistent strains in the balance of payments mean that it needs to fall further. Recent shifts towards more orthodox... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Strains in Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments starting to ease Saudi Arabia’s current account position deteriorated at the start of this year due to lower oil prices, but even taking this into account the underlying balance of payments position improved. We... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Hard evidence points to weakness in Saudi economy The relative strength of the PMI readings from Saudi Arabia have prompted some to argue that the economy is holding up well. However, our GDP Tracker suggests that the economy is struggling and we... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will Egypt turn to the IMF? Rumours have circulated again that Egypt is seeking a deal with the IMF and, as we argue in this Watch, an agreement is now looking more likely than at any point in the past five years. A financing... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian markets suffer amid balance of payments concerns Egyptian financial markets have been hit in the past month amid ongoing concerns over the country’s balance of payments position. Equities have fallen, spreads on dollar bonds have widened and... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stagnates as austerity takes its toll Our GDP Tracker suggests that tighter fiscal policy is taking a heavier toll on the economy than even we had anticipated. We will revisit our forecasts soon, but the short point is that expectations... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rates hiked as inflation jumps, currency pressures mount Today’s 100bp rate hike in Egyptian interest rates was larger than even our own above-consensus forecast and, with inflation likely to rise further in the coming months and the central bank willing to... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pressures on Saudi riyal should start to ease Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that Saudi Arabia will devalue the riyal. For our part, we have long argued that policymakers would be loath to abandon the dollar peg. And, as we explain in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s “National Transformation Plan” Saudi Arabia’s “National Transformation Plan” represents a credible effort by the authorities to flesh out some of their policies as they look to overhaul the Kingdom’s economy over the coming years... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read