Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stabilises Saudi Arabia’s economy didn’t perform as badly as we had feared in Q2 and our GDP Tracker suggests that things have stabilised at the start of Q3. That said, more timely data and recent policy... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation needed for capital flows to pick up Some analysts have argued that Egypt won’t devalue the pound until the country has a sustainable source of capital inflows, but we think this misses the point. The country is unlikely to experience a... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Strong Saudi Q2 GDP data could be revised down The 1.4% y/y Q2 GDP growth in Saudi Arabia reported by the local statistics authority was significantly stronger than we had expected. But we find this difficult to square with the weaker low-profile... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: first thoughts on the implications of the OPEC deal Last night’s OPEC deal to cut output is short on details, although our sense is that it’s unlikely to be a game-changer for Saudi Arabia, even if it shoulders most of the burden of the fall in... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian dollar bonds perform well as IMF deal edges closer Yields on Egyptian dollar bonds have edged down over the past month as the government has moved closer to securing an IMF deal. One of the likely lending conditions, however, is that the authorities... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt keeps rates unchanged, but large hikes lie ahead The decision by Egypt’s central bank to keep its key interest unchanged at 11.75% today, despite the recent sharp rise in inflation, suggests that large rate hikes are only likely once an IMF deal is... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A look ahead to Saudi Arabia’s international bond issuance Saudi Arabia’s upcoming international bond sale has sparked a lot of investor interest and we estimate that the Kingdom will manage to sell its 10-year debt for a relatively low yield of 3.50-3.75%... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will economic pain prompt a shift in Saudi oil policy? The slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s economy has prompted the authorities to soften their opposition to a deal to freeze oil output. While a deal is more likely than it was earlier this year, there are... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: revisiting the hit from lower oil prices Saudi Arabia’s upcoming Eurobond issuance has thrust the country’s finances back under the spotlight. Overall, the hit from lower oil prices has been significant – annual oil export revenues are down... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound could fall 25% if central bank loosens its grip We think the Egyptian pound could fall by as much as 25% against the US dollar, to 12.0/US$, by end-2017 if the authorities shift to a more flexible exchange rate as part of its prospective IMF deal. 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What conditions will be attached to Egypt’s IMF deal? The Egyptian authorities seem close to securing an IMF deal, but the conditions attached to lending have been a stumbling block to a bailout in the past and opposition has already started to emerge... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Slump in Saudi economy deepens Our GDP Tracker suggests that the slump in Saudi Arabia’s economy has deepened, with output falling by more than 2% y/y in June. A recovery is likely to get underway over the rest of this year and in... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian financial markets welcome IMF deal Financial markets in Egypt have rallied over the past month after the government reached an agreement with the IMF over a US$12bn financing package. Equities have risen, spreads on dollar-denominated... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE set to embark on gradual recovery The UAE’s economy is likely to record its slowest growth since 2010 this year, but the country’s strong balance sheet means that it should embark on a recovery in 2017-18. Indeed, we expect it to be... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy probably contracted in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy is suffering heavily under the weight of fiscal austerity, with output contracting by around 2% y/y as of May. IMF and consensus expectations for... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and the IMF: five questions (and answers) Egypt’s financial markets have responded extremely positively to the news that the government is close to securing an IMF deal, although at this stage few details about the negotiations are actually... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
