Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: what to make of the pound’s recent rally? Weaker import demand and a pick-up in foreign investment have pushed the Egyptian pound up by 15% against the US dollar in the past couple of weeks, and we think the rally may have a little further to... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: OPEC deal a short-term gain, but unlikely to be renewed The sharp rise in oil prices means that, despite implementing a larger-than-pledged oil output cut, Saudi Arabia has been a big beneficiary from the recent OPEC agreement. But with compliance likely... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s credit boom comes to an end, lending growth to stay weak The recent sharp slowdown in private sector credit growth, coupled with falling real estate prices, has ignited concerns that Qatar’s credit boom of the past few years is quickly unravelling. For now... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria’s economy to slump in 2017 Algeria’s economy held up better than expected last year as a rebound in the hydrocarbon sector offset weakness in the non-hydrocarbon sector. However, the adjustment to low oil prices is far from... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran now in Trump’s sights An early morning tweet from President Trump suggests that his attention may now shift to Iran and its infamous nuclear deal. In this Update, we explain what has happened, the chances of the deal being... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Decline in Saudi interbank rates to reverse course soon The recent decline in Saudi interbank rates reflects fading fears that the riyal will be devalued and easing liquidity shortages in the banking system. We still expect Saudi interbank rates to rise... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: will the government’s fiscal reforms be enough? The big fiscal squeeze that the Egyptian government has signed up for as part of its IMF deal will, if fully implemented, bring the debt ratio down. However, the authorities are likely to struggle to... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA sovereigns line up dollar bond sales The recent pull-back in US Treasury yields has prompted several MENA sovereigns to push ahead with their plans to issue dollar debt. With the Fed likely to hike interest rates more aggressively in... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy picking up at end of 2016, but set to slow in 2017 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy was on an improving trends towards the end of last year. But we expect growth to be slower this year compared with 2016 as weakness in the oil sector... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Key takeaways from the IMF’s Staff Report on Egypt The conditions attached to Egypt’s IMF loan, details of which were released earlier today, suggest that a significant fiscal squeeze is in the pipeline this year, while monetary policy will remain... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi balance of payments position to continue to improve The latest data show that Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments position improved markedly towards the end of 2016 and, with oil prices likely to grind higher this year, this trend looks set to continue... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf’s currency pegs withstand a stronger dollar? The appreciation of the US dollar since the end of last year has prompted renewed concerns over the sustainability of currency pegs in the Gulf, but we think these fears are overdone. Oil prices are... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation has further to rise Yesterday’s inflation data from Egypt made for grim reading and we think the headline rate is likely to peak at around 27% in the coming months, prompting further interest rate hikes. Price pressures... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth to slow as weaker oil sector offsets non-oil recovery Saudi Arabia’s economy is likely to grow at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis this year. However, this will largely reflect weakness in the oil sector. In contrast, with austerity... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi austerity to resume in 2018, but won’t be as harsh as 2015-16 Saudi Arabia’s recent budget suggested that fiscal consolidation will take a breather this year and, while the “Fiscal Balance Program” points to austerity resuming from 2018, it is likely to be less... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2017 Budget: austerity takes a breather Saudi Arabia’s budget suggests that, following a significant improvement in the public finances over the past couple of years, the fiscal stance will be broadly neutral in 2017. This supports our view... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
