Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

OPEC+ decision to keep a lid on Gulf economies’ growth

The decision by OPEC+ to keep oil production lower over the rest of this year means that oil sectors in the Gulf will grow more slowly than we had previously anticipated and we have revised down our...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi GDP growth will hinge on OPEC+ decision

After exiting recession in Q1, Saudi Arabia’s economy should continue to expand over the rest of this year on the back of strong private non-oil growth and higher oil output. But next month’s OPEC...

22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Iran’s succession plans unlikely to fix economic woes

The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power...

20th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy

We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of...

15th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Can Egypt take advantage of a weak pound?

Egypt’s shift back toward economic orthodoxy will result in near-term economic pain, but it could also pave the way for faster economic growth over a longer horizon. Part of that will rest on Egypt...

15th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Kuwait: déjà vu or the start of something new?

The dissolution of Kuwait’s parliament for the fourth time in two years highlights political infighting that has held back the economy for years. While much remains uncertain, there is now a clear...

13th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia can stick with its loose fiscal stance (for now)

Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widened further at the start of this year and, for now at least, the government seems comfortable with maintaining the loose fiscal stance and issuing more debt. If oil...

7th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

“Turnaround EMs”: good start but plenty more to do

The policy shifts underway in Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina and Egypt have ticked a lot of the right boxes so far, but it will take years for the full economic benefits to materialise and require...

24th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

UAE set to be top of the class again in 2024

The UAE’s economy outperformed the other Gulf economies in 2023 and we think that this outperformance will continue this year.

23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia’s foreign investment struggles persist

Saudi Arabia has yet to be able to raise foreign direct investment towards its Vision 2030 goals, prompting a turn to the Public Investment Fund (PIF) to prop up investment spending. Unless the...

17th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The Iran drone strike & the oil market implications

There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving...

15th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Bahrain needs to follow Oman’s path to reduce debt fears

Oman and Bahrain both recorded sharp increases in their government debt-to-GDP ratios in the second half of the last decade, but while Oman’s public finances have improved dramatically since then...

8th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia's non-oil economy to drive the recovery

After a very weak 2023, Saudi Arabia’s economy should see a modest recovery this year as the Kingdom’s non-oil economy sustains its strong momentum and more than offsets the drag from the extended oil...

3rd April 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt’s orthodox policy shift back underway with IMF

The announcement of an agreement over a new IMF package for Egypt, coming on the back of the rate hike and devaluation earlier today, represents a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. While it is...

6th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Morocco well placed to move towards floating dirham

Morocco’s improving balance of payments position and the sharp slowdown in inflation should provide the central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), with the confidence to take the next step toward a fully...

4th March 2024 · 3 mins read