Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt set to pass first IMF review, but bigger tests to come The Egyptian government has probably made sufficient progress to pass the upcoming review of its IMF programme and receive the second tranche of its US$12bn loan. Investors are likely to welcome this... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How big is the threat of deflation in the Gulf? The recent dip in Saudi inflation into negative territory following a period of weak growth has raised broader concerns about the threat of deflation in the Gulf. Our core inflation measures for the... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank unfazed by inflation surge The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today confirmed that policymakers are looking through the recent surge in inflation but, while inflation should start to fall... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf markets give mixed response to oil price dip The recent dip in oil prices has prompted the usual drop in equity markets across the Gulf, but bond markets have fared better. In fact, spreads on the region’s dollar bond have actually narrowed over... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: what to make of Aramco’s tax cut Today’s decision by the Saudi authorities to lower the tax rate applied to Aramco is unlikely to have any impact on the Kingdom’s day-to-day public finances. Instead, it simply reflects a shift in the... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy slows on back of oil output cuts Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed at the start of this year, which was entirely due to oil production cuts. There has been better news on the non-oil economy, where easing... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh Saudi devaluation fears look wide of the mark The recent dip in oil prices has raised concerns in some quarters that the Saudi authorities may devalue the riyal, but we find this highly unlikely. Indeed, the probability that the dollar peg will... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer spending continues to struggle Household consumption in Saudi Arabia slowed sharply last year in the face of fiscal austerity and, while low-level indicators suggest that the worst may now be over, there’s little sign of a strong... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia softening opposition to OPEC deal extension Saudi Arabia has continued to comply with its side of November’s OPEC agreement and recent comments from policymakers suggest that the Kingdom’s opposition to extending the deal beyond June is easing... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s behind the Saudi credit slowdown? The sharp slowdown in credit growth in Saudi Arabia is likely to reach a trough soon. However, as we explain in this Watch, a weak economic outlook and higher interest rates mean that lending growth... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weaker pound having the desired effect Egypt’s balance of payments data for Q4 released today show only a modest narrowing in the current account deficit, but digging a little deeper there are signs that the 50% drop in the pound against... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stronger in Q4, consensus too bearish on 2017 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy strengthened in the final quarter of 2016 as the drag from fiscal austerity eased. Headline GDP growth is likely to slow sharply in the first half of... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: should we be concerned about deflation? The recent dip in Saudi inflation into negative territory has raised concerns in some quarters that the country could be at risk of a long and damaging period of deflation. There are good reasons to... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Steady stream of Gulf dollar bond sales continues Oman and, for the first time, Kuwait are expected to sell dollar bonds in the coming weeks, continuing the raft of issuances from the Gulf countries over the past year. Kuwait’s strong balance sheet... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s economy set for a slow recovery in 2017-18 Tunisia’s economy picked up over the course of 2016 and, while growth is likely to strengthen a little further over the next couple of years, we expect it to remain sluggish at 2-3%. 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank looks through inflation spike The decision by Egypt’s central bank to leave its policy interest rate on hold despite the rise in inflation to a 30-year high last month means that additional monetary tightening is no longer on the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
