Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn deepened in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the downturn in the Saudi economy deepened in the second quarter and we expect GDP to fall at an even steeper pace over the second half of the year. Over 2017 as a whole... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian central bank to ease policy before year end The Central Bank of Egypt brought its tightening cycle to an end last night. With inflation likely to fall sharply over the next six-to-nine months, we expect that the MPC will start to ease monetary... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s diplomatic crisis: the economic hit so far The early evidence suggests that the diplomatic crisis between Qatar and regional powers dealt a damaging, but apparently brief, blow to Qatar’s economy. 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy sees temporary recovery after Q1 slump Our GDP Tracker suggests that the pace of contraction in Saudi Arabia’s economy eased between March and April. However, that is likely to be temporary, and we expect Saudi GDP to fall at a steeper... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Strains in Qatar’s markets ease There is growing evidence that the diplomatic crisis between Qatar and regional powers has (at least temporarily) hurt Qatar’s economy, but there are also signs that tensions in the country’s... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s wider current account deficit not a cause for alarm A large chunk of the recent widening of Morocco’s current account deficit to around 5% of the GDP can be explained by a one-off jumps in import, mainly related to the expansion of capacity in the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Upward pressure on Egyptian pound likely to wane Egypt’s central bank appears to have been intervening in the foreign exchange market to prevent the pound from strengthening, but we think the forces putting upward pressure on the currency will soon... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What explains the continued slide in Saudi Arabia’s FX reserves? Saudi Arabia’s official foreign exchange reserves have continued to decline sharply, despite the marked improvement in the current account position over the past year or so. This has raised concerns... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are we witnessing the end of the GCC? A threat by regional powers to expel Qatar from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has sparked fears that the group could be disbanded. A complete breakup of the GCC seems highly unlikely but, even if... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt hikes rates but hints at end of tightening cycle The Egyptian central bank’s surprise decision late last night to hike its benchmark overnight deposit rate by 200bp, to 18.75%, was largely a response to recently-announced subsidy cuts, which will... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi markets rally as MSCI points to EM upgrade Saudi Arabia’s equity market has rallied on the back of MSCI’s decision to put the country on its “watch list” for an upgrade to Emerging Market status, but there are a few reasons to think that the... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi reshuffle clarifies succession, but hurdles to reform remain The decision by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman to promote his son, Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), to crown prince provides some clarity on the line of succession. That being said, many of the barriers to the... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain and Oman: the Gulf’s weak spots Recent comments from the IMF and ratings agencies have put the focus back on the weak balance sheets of the Gulf’s two smallest economies, Bahrain and Oman. We have warned for some time that both... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: banking sector concerns slip under the radar Concerns over the impact on Qatar from its diplomatic spat with neighbouring countries have largely focussed on trade ties, but we think investors should be keeping a closer eye on Qatar’s banking... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears over Qatar’s dollar peg misplaced The diplomatic spat between Qatar and its neighbours has sparked fears that it may be forced to devalue the riyal, but we think this is highly unlikely. In particular, the country’s strong balance... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Economic fallout from Qatar diplomatic spat likely to be limited The recent spat between Qatar and regional powers has escalated over the past 24 hours, but there are good reasons to think that the impact on these economies and global energy markets will be limited... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
