Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears over Qatar’s dollar peg misplaced The diplomatic spat between Qatar and its neighbours has sparked fears that it may be forced to devalue the riyal, but we think this is highly unlikely. In particular, the country’s strong balance... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Economic fallout from Qatar diplomatic spat likely to be limited The recent spat between Qatar and regional powers has escalated over the past 24 hours, but there are good reasons to think that the impact on these economies and global energy markets will be limited... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA equity markets continue to underperform Stock markets across the Middle East and North Africa have struggled over the past month, continuing their relative underperformance since the start of the year. This largely reflects weakness in Gulf... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts cause Saudi economy to stagnate Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy stagnated in March as oil production cuts continued to trim headline growth. Encouragingly, though, the non-oil economy strengthened further and... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC deal should allow Gulf to ease austerity further OPEC’s decision to rollover its oil output cuts didn’t come as a surprise, but the fact that calls for deeper cuts never even made it on to the table suggests that the Gulf economies are resistant to... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai: notes from the ground We were in Dubai last week for meetings with clients and local contacts. In this Update, we summarise three key takeaways from our visit. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rate hike likely to be a one-off The Egyptian central bank’s surprise decision late last night to hike its benchmark interest rate by 200bp, to 16.75%, appears to the result of pressure from the IMF. The move is likely to be a one... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s business climate improving, but challenges remain Egypt’s new investment law is a positive step towards improving the dire business environment. But greater efforts, particularly in raising domestic savings, are needed if investment is to reach the... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf likely to push back against calls for deeper oil output cuts This month’s dip in oil prices means that it is almost certain OPEC will agree to an extension to its oil output cuts into the second half of this year. But we think Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi public finance figures suggest big spending cuts are over New quarterly public finance figures released by the Saudi government today show a sharp narrowing in the budget deficit at the start of this year, supported by higher oil revenues. The data also... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf economies better placed to deal with low oil prices The recent fall in oil prices has reignited fears over the outlook for the Gulf, but as we explain in this Watch these countries are in a better position now to weather a period of low oil prices than... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: a bright spot in the Gulf The recent recovery in the UAE’s non-oil sector is set to continue over the coming years, supported by easing fiscal austerity, robust global economic growth and a step up in preparations for the 2020... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Devaluation fears fade in the Gulf, Tunisia’s dinar falls Fears that low oil prices would force the Gulf countries to devalue their currencies have continued to fade over the past month. However, one country in the region where the authorities have loosened... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy slows further, but non-oil sector faring better Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to slow in February on the back of oil production cuts. On a more positive note, the recovery in the non-oil sector has strengthened and... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi benefit cut U-turn not a major cause for alarm The Saudi government’s decision to reinstate benefits for civil servants appears to be a U-turn on one of the more unpopular austerity measures, rather than the start of a wholesale reversal of recent... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf: improving budget positions to allow austerity to ease Budget positions across the Gulf should improve over the next couple of years – and many will return to surplus – supported in large part by higher oil prices. As a result, governments across the... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
