Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: a bright spot in the Gulf The recent recovery in the UAE’s non-oil sector is set to continue over the coming years, supported by easing fiscal austerity, robust global economic growth and a step up in preparations for the 2020... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Devaluation fears fade in the Gulf, Tunisia’s dinar falls Fears that low oil prices would force the Gulf countries to devalue their currencies have continued to fade over the past month. However, one country in the region where the authorities have loosened... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy slows further, but non-oil sector faring better Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to slow in February on the back of oil production cuts. On a more positive note, the recovery in the non-oil sector has strengthened and... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi benefit cut U-turn not a major cause for alarm The Saudi government’s decision to reinstate benefits for civil servants appears to be a U-turn on one of the more unpopular austerity measures, rather than the start of a wholesale reversal of recent... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf: improving budget positions to allow austerity to ease Budget positions across the Gulf should improve over the next couple of years – and many will return to surplus – supported in large part by higher oil prices. As a result, governments across the... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt set to pass first IMF review, but bigger tests to come The Egyptian government has probably made sufficient progress to pass the upcoming review of its IMF programme and receive the second tranche of its US$12bn loan. Investors are likely to welcome this... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How big is the threat of deflation in the Gulf? The recent dip in Saudi inflation into negative territory following a period of weak growth has raised broader concerns about the threat of deflation in the Gulf. Our core inflation measures for the... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank unfazed by inflation surge The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today confirmed that policymakers are looking through the recent surge in inflation but, while inflation should start to fall... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf markets give mixed response to oil price dip The recent dip in oil prices has prompted the usual drop in equity markets across the Gulf, but bond markets have fared better. In fact, spreads on the region’s dollar bond have actually narrowed over... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: what to make of Aramco’s tax cut Today’s decision by the Saudi authorities to lower the tax rate applied to Aramco is unlikely to have any impact on the Kingdom’s day-to-day public finances. Instead, it simply reflects a shift in the... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy slows on back of oil output cuts Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed at the start of this year, which was entirely due to oil production cuts. There has been better news on the non-oil economy, where easing... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh Saudi devaluation fears look wide of the mark The recent dip in oil prices has raised concerns in some quarters that the Saudi authorities may devalue the riyal, but we find this highly unlikely. Indeed, the probability that the dollar peg will... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer spending continues to struggle Household consumption in Saudi Arabia slowed sharply last year in the face of fiscal austerity and, while low-level indicators suggest that the worst may now be over, there’s little sign of a strong... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia softening opposition to OPEC deal extension Saudi Arabia has continued to comply with its side of November’s OPEC agreement and recent comments from policymakers suggest that the Kingdom’s opposition to extending the deal beyond June is easing... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s behind the Saudi credit slowdown? The sharp slowdown in credit growth in Saudi Arabia is likely to reach a trough soon. However, as we explain in this Watch, a weak economic outlook and higher interest rates mean that lending growth... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weaker pound having the desired effect Egypt’s balance of payments data for Q4 released today show only a modest narrowing in the current account deficit, but digging a little deeper there are signs that the 50% drop in the pound against... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read