Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf dollar pegs well placed to weather geopolitical risks The escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran has raised fresh concerns about the region’s dollar pegs. While a devaluation in Lebanon is not out of the question, there are good reasons to... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Tunisia repeating Egypt’s currency mistakes? The Tunisian authorities have recently introduced a range of new measures in an effort to tighten their grip on the currency. However, Egypt’s experience suggests that such policies do more harm than... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A closer look at Lebanon’s FX debt burden The political crisis in Lebanon has raised fears that the authorities will be forced to devalue the pound. One thing that has often been overlooked, though, is the risk that this could force the... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt holds rates, but December cut on the cards Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Egypt to keep interest rates on hold was not a major surprise given that the recent falls in inflation have been fairly modest. But data to be released in the... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain: peg to stay intact, but austerity to be stepped up Reports that Bahrain’s government has requested financial support from its Gulf neighbours has raised fresh questions over the sustainability of the country’s dollar peg. We expect this financing to... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi sabre-rattling hits markets The anti-corruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia and mounting tensions between the Kingdom and Iran have unnerved investors this week, although the impact has been more acute in financial markets in the... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Five key questions on developments in Saudi Arabia Events in Saudi Arabia since the weekend have potentially significant, but also complex, implications both for domestic policymaking and the wider region. In this Update, we try to make sense of... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon’s dollar peg under threat as tensions mount The deterioration in relations between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia in recent days has raised fresh concerns over the sustainability of Lebanon’s dollar peg. While the country has substantial FX reserves... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to make of the Saudi anti-corruption drive The arrests of prominent officials and businessmen in Saudi Arabia over the weekend has been welcomed in some quarters as a step towards tackling corruption in the Kingdom and is another sign that... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Egyptian pound: one year on from the float Tomorrow will mark one year since Egypt’s central bank announced that it would move to a floating exchange rate. As we explain in this Watch, a weaker pound has yet to support a major improvement in... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil hits $60pb but Gulf markets continue to struggle Oil prices broke through $60pb this month, up by a third since the middle of the year, but this has failed to provide a fillip to financial markets in the Gulf. In contrast, markets in Egypt have... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does oil at $60pb mean for the Gulf? The rise in oil prices since the middle of the year could boost the Gulf’s oil export revenues by around $100bn, equal to 5% of regional GDP, on an annual basis. That would push current account... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn deepens in Q3, but close to a bottom Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted at a steeper pace in Q3 than in Q2. However, the worst may soon be over. 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Neom: is Saudi Arabia about to repeat past mistakes? Plans announced today by the Saudi government to construct a huge new economic city, called Neom, have grabbed the headlines but the Kingdom has poor form when it comes to implementing mega-projects... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: worst of the blockade impact appears to be over Recently-released GDP data confirmed that the blockade on Qatar dealt a blow to its economy in June, but more timely data suggest that the worst has now passed. That said, any recovery is likely to be... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: investment key to sustaining manufacturing boom Egypt’s manufacturing sector has been one of the main beneficiaries from a weaker pound but the recent rapid pace of growth will be difficult to sustain in the absence of a significant pick up in... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
