Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to be larger than most expect Further sharp falls in Egyptian inflation in the coming months are likely to prompt the central bank to embark on a monetary easing cycle. We expect the benchmark interest rate to be cut to 13.25% by... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the protests in Iran If the recent protests in Iran rumble on or even spread, the resulting disruptions to activity are likely to weigh on the country’s economy but the fallout for the rest of the MENA economies, as well... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dollar peg fears ease, but Lebanon remains vulnerable The easing of political tensions in the region in recent weeks has reduced concerns about the sustainability of dollar pegs, supporting our view that fears of devaluations in the Gulf looked misplaced... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2018 budget unveils modest fiscal loosening The Saudi budget released this afternoon showed that the government has already started to loosen fiscal policy and will continue to do so in 2018. This is a more accommodative stance than we had... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to look out for in Saudi Arabia’s 2018 budget The recent rise in oil prices has raised some hopes that Saudi Arabia’s 2018 budget – to be announced next week – will unveil a shift towards looser fiscal policy to support the economy. However, we... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC extends deal, Gulf signals comfort with $60pb oil OPEC’s decision to extend its oil production cuts until the end of 2018 was widely expected and indicates that the Gulf countries are content with oil prices at around $60pb. Despite the deal, the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar faces slow recovery from blockade hit The worst of the hit to Qatar’s economy from its diplomatic crisis with neighbouring countries has now passed but the early signs suggest the recovery will be slow and uneven. Indeed, certain sectors... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn probably gathered pace in Q3 Saudi Arabia’s economic downturn appears to have deepened in Q3 on the back of a steeper year-on-year fall in oil production. That said, even if OPEC decides to extend its oil production cuts at its... 27th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf dollar pegs well placed to weather geopolitical risks The escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran has raised fresh concerns about the region’s dollar pegs. While a devaluation in Lebanon is not out of the question, there are good reasons to... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Tunisia repeating Egypt’s currency mistakes? The Tunisian authorities have recently introduced a range of new measures in an effort to tighten their grip on the currency. However, Egypt’s experience suggests that such policies do more harm than... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A closer look at Lebanon’s FX debt burden The political crisis in Lebanon has raised fears that the authorities will be forced to devalue the pound. One thing that has often been overlooked, though, is the risk that this could force the... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt holds rates, but December cut on the cards Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Egypt to keep interest rates on hold was not a major surprise given that the recent falls in inflation have been fairly modest. But data to be released in the... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain: peg to stay intact, but austerity to be stepped up Reports that Bahrain’s government has requested financial support from its Gulf neighbours has raised fresh questions over the sustainability of the country’s dollar peg. We expect this financing to... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi sabre-rattling hits markets The anti-corruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia and mounting tensions between the Kingdom and Iran have unnerved investors this week, although the impact has been more acute in financial markets in the... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Five key questions on developments in Saudi Arabia Events in Saudi Arabia since the weekend have potentially significant, but also complex, implications both for domestic policymaking and the wider region. In this Update, we try to make sense of... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon’s dollar peg under threat as tensions mount The deterioration in relations between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia in recent days has raised fresh concerns over the sustainability of Lebanon’s dollar peg. While the country has substantial FX reserves... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read