Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian bond yields likely to fall further The Central Bank of Egypt embarked on an easing cycle last week and we expect inflation and interest rates to fall by more than most anticipate over the next couple of years. Accordingly, the recent... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to be larger than most expect The Egyptian central bank’s easing cycle, which started last night, is likely to result in larger interest rate cuts than most anticipate. We expect an additional 650bp of rate cuts by the end of 2019... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: private sector credit to support pick-up in growth Bank lending to Egypt’s private sector has been weak for a number of years as the government has leaned on local banks to purchase government bonds, crowding out credit to the rest of the economy. But... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy turning the corner The latest data suggest that the worst of the downturn in the Saudi economy had passed in late 2017 and a recovery should get underway over the coming months. The limited evidence so far suggests that... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s budget deficit to narrow further The Egyptian government has finally made inroads into its large budget deficit and we expect the shortfall to narrow further over the coming years. But the public finances remain in a poor state and... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s gas sector experiencing a renaissance Last week, Egypt’s President al-Sisi inaugurated the Zohr gas field which, combined with the onset of production from a number of other fields, will provide a sizeable boost to GDP growth over the... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Narrowing of Gulf interbank spreads has gone too far The spread of interbank interest rates in the Gulf over those in the US has narrowed to its lowest level since 2008. While we correctly argued in 2016 that spreads would begin to narrow, we think that... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s economy weathering diplomatic crisis The latest data from Qatar reinforce the picture that the economy has weathered the diplomatic crisis with regional powers. That said, hopes for a resolution to the crisis have been dashed by events... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Moroccan dirham to avoid fate of Egyptian pound The announcement on Friday by Morocco’s central bank that it will move to a more flexible exchange rate regime has raised concerns that the dirham will follow the path of currencies in the rest of... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi households to be a weak spot in 2018 The Saudi government looks set to loosen fiscal policy this year which should support a pick-up in economic growth. However, as we explain in this Watch, households won’t be net beneficiaries from... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi bonuses to lift growth but raise fears over reform The announcement in Saudi Arabia over the weekend that the government will pay bonuses to civil servants and military personnel means that fiscal policy will be slightly looser this year than had been... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to be larger than most expect Further sharp falls in Egyptian inflation in the coming months are likely to prompt the central bank to embark on a monetary easing cycle. We expect the benchmark interest rate to be cut to 13.25% by... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the protests in Iran If the recent protests in Iran rumble on or even spread, the resulting disruptions to activity are likely to weigh on the country’s economy but the fallout for the rest of the MENA economies, as well... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dollar peg fears ease, but Lebanon remains vulnerable The easing of political tensions in the region in recent weeks has reduced concerns about the sustainability of dollar pegs, supporting our view that fears of devaluations in the Gulf looked misplaced... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2018 budget unveils modest fiscal loosening The Saudi budget released this afternoon showed that the government has already started to loosen fiscal policy and will continue to do so in 2018. This is a more accommodative stance than we had... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to look out for in Saudi Arabia’s 2018 budget The recent rise in oil prices has raised some hopes that Saudi Arabia’s 2018 budget – to be announced next week – will unveil a shift towards looser fiscal policy to support the economy. However, we... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
