Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Markets drop as Trump pulls out of Iran’s nuclear deal The US administration’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, coming alongside the recent EM sell-off, means that it has been a terrible month for financial markets across the Middle East and... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: near-term outlook is bright Egypt’s economy has weathered the fallout from the pound’s devaluation in late-2016 and, as fiscal consolidation slows and inflation and interest rates drop back, growth should remain robust over the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will rising oil prices trigger fiscal loosening in the Gulf? The recent rally in oil prices has already prompted governments across the Gulf to shift away from the harsh austerity of recent years. But long-term oil price expectations are still low and the... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle takes a pause The Egyptian central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, rather than cut them again, comes on the back of a pick-up in underlying price pressures as well as the recent sell-off in EM... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Trump and Iran’s nuclear deal: assessing the impact President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the nuclear deal with Iran is likely to prompt a fresh downturn in Iran’s economy but, as things stand, the economic impact on the rest of the MENA... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Higher spending causes Saudi budget deficit to widen Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widened in Q1 compared with a year earlier as a raft of public sector bonuses more than offset the boost to revenues from the introduction of a new value-added tax. That... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy pulling out of recession The Saudi economy appears to have returned to positive growth in the first few months of this year as a fading drag from the oil sector has more than offset a modest slowdown in the rest of the... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Five key questions on Trump and the Iran nuclear deal There’s a growing chance that US President Donald Trump will refuse to waive sanctions on Iran later this month. In this Update, we answer five key questions on the sanctions and the nuclear deal, as... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rise in MENA dollar bond yields has further to go Dollar bond yields have risen across the MENA region over the past month and we think this process has further to run. Underlying US Treasury yields look set to creep up as the Fed raises interest... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Lebanon’s central bank putting the dollar peg at risk? The Lebanese authorities have suggested that they will soon undertake another “financial engineering” exercise in an effort to boost the central banks’ FX reserves and reduce the government’s debt... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi talk of $100pb oil doesn’t signal shift in oil policy The recent jump in oil prices to $75pb has been fuelled in part by reports that the Saudi authorities have expressed a desire for prices of $100pb. But we don’t think a fundamental shift in Saudi oil... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s current account deficit to narrow further The narrowing in Egypt’s current account deficit has further to run, supported by a recovery in the tourism sector and strong export growth. This will help to limit downward pressure on the pound and... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE set for recovery, but consensus too optimistic The UAE’s economy should recover this year as the drag from the oil sector fades and preparations for the 2020 World Expo are stepped up. Even so, we still think that growth will be weaker than most... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy starting a slow recovery The downturn in Saudi Arabia deepened at the end of last year, but the latest figures suggest that the economy returned to positive growth at the beginning of 2018. 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: what to watch for as al-Sisi’s second term begins A victory for Egypt’s President al-Sisi in this week’s presidential election was never in doubt and attention will now shift to any changes to key policymaking positions. Mr. al-Sisi begins his second... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Tadawul rally to run out of steam Saudi Arabia’s stock market has jumped in recent weeks on the back of growing hopes that it will be upgraded to “emerging market” status by the index compiler FTSE Russell. But past experience shows... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
