Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy moving towards recovery It looks like Saudi Arabia’s economy turned the corner in late 2017 and, while the early data from the start of this year have been disappointing, a recovery should still get underway. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update New Saudi bankruptcy law a step in the right direction Saudi Arabia’s new bankruptcy law, which was approved by King Salman last month, will make it easier to deal with the fallout from corporate failures and, through improving access to credit, support... 1st March 2018 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What do higher US interest rates mean for the Gulf? The Gulf’s dollar pegs mean that further rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve will be imported into the region, keeping a lid on credit growth and pushing up government borrowing costs. This is... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: will new central bank boss herald a policy shift? The recent changeover at the helm of Tunisia’s central bank has raised hopes of a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. But the new governor is likely to run in to resistance from the government... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: inflation to fall further and stay low The drop in Egyptian inflation over the past six months has largely reflected the unwinding impact from the pound’s devaluation in late-2016. But there are a couple of additional reasons to think that... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian bond yields likely to fall further The Central Bank of Egypt embarked on an easing cycle last week and we expect inflation and interest rates to fall by more than most anticipate over the next couple of years. Accordingly, the recent... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to be larger than most expect The Egyptian central bank’s easing cycle, which started last night, is likely to result in larger interest rate cuts than most anticipate. We expect an additional 650bp of rate cuts by the end of 2019... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: private sector credit to support pick-up in growth Bank lending to Egypt’s private sector has been weak for a number of years as the government has leaned on local banks to purchase government bonds, crowding out credit to the rest of the economy. But... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy turning the corner The latest data suggest that the worst of the downturn in the Saudi economy had passed in late 2017 and a recovery should get underway over the coming months. The limited evidence so far suggests that... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s budget deficit to narrow further The Egyptian government has finally made inroads into its large budget deficit and we expect the shortfall to narrow further over the coming years. But the public finances remain in a poor state and... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s gas sector experiencing a renaissance Last week, Egypt’s President al-Sisi inaugurated the Zohr gas field which, combined with the onset of production from a number of other fields, will provide a sizeable boost to GDP growth over the... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Narrowing of Gulf interbank spreads has gone too far The spread of interbank interest rates in the Gulf over those in the US has narrowed to its lowest level since 2008. While we correctly argued in 2016 that spreads would begin to narrow, we think that... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s economy weathering diplomatic crisis The latest data from Qatar reinforce the picture that the economy has weathered the diplomatic crisis with regional powers. That said, hopes for a resolution to the crisis have been dashed by events... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Moroccan dirham to avoid fate of Egyptian pound The announcement on Friday by Morocco’s central bank that it will move to a more flexible exchange rate regime has raised concerns that the dirham will follow the path of currencies in the rest of... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi households to be a weak spot in 2018 The Saudi government looks set to loosen fiscal policy this year which should support a pick-up in economic growth. However, as we explain in this Watch, households won’t be net beneficiaries from... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi bonuses to lift growth but raise fears over reform The announcement in Saudi Arabia over the weekend that the government will pay bonuses to civil servants and military personnel means that fiscal policy will be slightly looser this year than had been... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read