Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Lebanon’s central bank putting the dollar peg at risk? The Lebanese authorities have suggested that they will soon undertake another “financial engineering” exercise in an effort to boost the central banks’ FX reserves and reduce the government’s debt... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi talk of $100pb oil doesn’t signal shift in oil policy The recent jump in oil prices to $75pb has been fuelled in part by reports that the Saudi authorities have expressed a desire for prices of $100pb. But we don’t think a fundamental shift in Saudi oil... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s current account deficit to narrow further The narrowing in Egypt’s current account deficit has further to run, supported by a recovery in the tourism sector and strong export growth. This will help to limit downward pressure on the pound and... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE set for recovery, but consensus too optimistic The UAE’s economy should recover this year as the drag from the oil sector fades and preparations for the 2020 World Expo are stepped up. Even so, we still think that growth will be weaker than most... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy starting a slow recovery The downturn in Saudi Arabia deepened at the end of last year, but the latest figures suggest that the economy returned to positive growth at the beginning of 2018. 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: what to watch for as al-Sisi’s second term begins A victory for Egypt’s President al-Sisi in this week’s presidential election was never in doubt and attention will now shift to any changes to key policymaking positions. Mr. al-Sisi begins his second... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Tadawul rally to run out of steam Saudi Arabia’s stock market has jumped in recent weeks on the back of growing hopes that it will be upgraded to “emerging market” status by the index compiler FTSE Russell. But past experience shows... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: risk of messy dinar devaluation rising Pressure is building on the Tunisian dinar and our central scenario is that the IMF will push the authorities to loosen their grip on the currency in the near future. This is likely to result in a 10%... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: banking strains ease, but credit to stay weak Qatar’s banking sector has weathered the worst of the impact of the blockade. But tight external financing conditions and a need to deleverage mean that credit growth will provide less of a prop to... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Aramco IPO delay to have little near-term impact Reports that the initial public offering of Saudi Arabia’s national oil company, Aramco, will be delayed until next year are not a major surprise given the complexity of the transaction. The delay... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain and Oman: austerity to gather pace to cap debt Public debt-to-GDP ratios in Bahrain and Oman are on a worrying path and we expect the pace of austerity to be stepped up over the coming years to slow the rise in debt. However, that will come at the... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy moving towards recovery It looks like Saudi Arabia’s economy turned the corner in late 2017 and, while the early data from the start of this year have been disappointing, a recovery should still get underway. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update New Saudi bankruptcy law a step in the right direction Saudi Arabia’s new bankruptcy law, which was approved by King Salman last month, will make it easier to deal with the fallout from corporate failures and, through improving access to credit, support... 1st March 2018 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What do higher US interest rates mean for the Gulf? The Gulf’s dollar pegs mean that further rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve will be imported into the region, keeping a lid on credit growth and pushing up government borrowing costs. This is... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: will new central bank boss herald a policy shift? The recent changeover at the helm of Tunisia’s central bank has raised hopes of a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. But the new governor is likely to run in to resistance from the government... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: inflation to fall further and stay low The drop in Egyptian inflation over the past six months has largely reflected the unwinding impact from the pound’s devaluation in late-2016. But there are a couple of additional reasons to think that... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
