Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi dollar peg to remain intact The fallout from the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, appears to have triggered a spike in capital outflows, putting pressure on the riyal. But we think it’s highly unlikely that the Saudi... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fresh political shock and oil prices key risks to watch The fallout from the disappearance of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, has supposedly shifted investors’ attention to the Saudi government’s rising debt burden, but we think that these concerns are... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia and the sanctions threat The escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and the US over the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is likely to weigh on local financial markets, but the Kingdom is in a strong... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf’s recovery to peak in mid-2019 The Gulf’s economic recovery looks set to gather pace over the coming quarters and growth is likely to be stronger than most expect. But the recovery will probably peak in the middle of next year and... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain: financing from the Gulf to stave off devaluation The $10bn financial support package for Bahrain will help to prevent a currency devaluation but, as we have long expected, financing has come with strings attached. A step up in fiscal consolidation... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of higher oil prices We don’t expect the recent jump in oil prices to be sustained but if we are wrong and prices stay at $85pb, annual export revenues in the Gulf would be $200bn higher than in 2017. Governments would... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy to gather momentum Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery gathered pace in Q2 and we think that GDP growth will accelerate further over the coming quarters as oil output rises and fiscal stimulus supports stronger activity in... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle not over yet August’s rise in inflation and signs of weaker capital inflows swayed Egypt’s central bank to leave interest rates on hold last night but, if we are right in expecting inflation to drop back over the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Focus turns to problems in region’s smaller economies Balance sheets in MENA’s largest economies have improved in recent years, but those in some the smaller economies remain very fragile, something that the markets are now paying attention too. Bahrain... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s driving stronger Saudi capital outflows? Capital outflows from Saudi Arabia have picked up over the past 18 months, but the bulk of this seems to reflect ongoing foreign investments by the sovereign wealth fund. A bigger concern from the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How is Dubai’s economy performing? Economic growth in Dubai appears to have been broadly stable this year despite signs of weakness in the real estate and tourism sectors. The recent fiscal stimulus package and a step-up in... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Lebanon lurching towards a crisis? Lebanon’s recent political deadlock has reignited fears over the country’s weak balance sheets. A fresh escalation of tensions with the Gulf is still a major threat and, as we’ve warned before, this... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: fresh pound weakness still on the cards The Central Bank of Egypt appears to have intervened to support the pound in recent months, but we expect the authorities to loosen their grip over the next couple of years. We have pencilled in a 10%... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy accelerated at the end of Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that rising oil output supported a pick-up in growth in Saudi Arabia at the end of Q2. We expect that the economy will perform better than most anticipate over the next twelve... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to resume next month The Egyptian central left interest rates on hold last night, but declining inflation means that the easing cycle is likely to resume at September’s MPC meeting. And we still think that interest rates... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran, sanctions and the implications for the rest of MENA The re-introduction of the first tranche of US sanctions on Iran, which came into force today, will result in a downturn in Iran’s economy but, as things stand, the economic impact on the rest of the... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
