Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s driving stronger Saudi capital outflows? Capital outflows from Saudi Arabia have picked up over the past 18 months, but the bulk of this seems to reflect ongoing foreign investments by the sovereign wealth fund. A bigger concern from the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How is Dubai’s economy performing? Economic growth in Dubai appears to have been broadly stable this year despite signs of weakness in the real estate and tourism sectors. The recent fiscal stimulus package and a step-up in... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Lebanon lurching towards a crisis? Lebanon’s recent political deadlock has reignited fears over the country’s weak balance sheets. A fresh escalation of tensions with the Gulf is still a major threat and, as we’ve warned before, this... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: fresh pound weakness still on the cards The Central Bank of Egypt appears to have intervened to support the pound in recent months, but we expect the authorities to loosen their grip over the next couple of years. We have pencilled in a 10%... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy accelerated at the end of Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that rising oil output supported a pick-up in growth in Saudi Arabia at the end of Q2. We expect that the economy will perform better than most anticipate over the next twelve... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to resume next month The Egyptian central left interest rates on hold last night, but declining inflation means that the easing cycle is likely to resume at September’s MPC meeting. And we still think that interest rates... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran, sanctions and the implications for the rest of MENA The re-introduction of the first tranche of US sanctions on Iran, which came into force today, will result in a downturn in Iran’s economy but, as things stand, the economic impact on the rest of the... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s prospects remain bright Morocco’s economy has slowed this year. But this is almost entirely a result of weakness in the agricultural sector, and we expect growth to strengthen in 2019. Moreover, as Morocco continues to... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s public finances on the right track Egypt’s public finances are still in a poor state but the government has made progress in cutting the budget deficit in recent years and the debt ratio is now falling. The pace of fiscal consolidation... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth plateaued in Q2, but pick-up now underway Our GDP Tracker suggests that economic growth in Saudi Arabia plateaued in the first two months of Q2. But rising oil output is now providing a boost to the recovery and we expect that GDP growth will... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external position on the mend The improvement in Egypt’s balance of payments position over the past eighteen months should be sustained, providing some support to the pound. Accordingly, inflation should resume its downward trend... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy lost momentum at the start of Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed a touch in April, but we think that this will prove temporary. Growth is likely to pick-up sharply over the coming months as the Kingdom... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: should we worry about rising public FX debt? The sharp rise in the Egyptian government’s foreign currency debt over the past few years is not yet a major cause for concern – the risk of a destabilising fall in the pound appears to be low and the... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi emerges from recession, recovery to gather pace Saudi Arabia’s economy pulled out of recession in Q1 and we expect the recovery to gain momentum over the coming quarters, supported by fiscal stimulus and a jump in oil output. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rates on hold, easing cycle to resume in September The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold (rather than lower rates) was a response to recently-announced subsidy cuts that will push up inflation. But the easing cycle is... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain comes back under the spotlight The sell-off in Bahrain’s financial markets this week reflects fears that it is struggling to secure external financing to plug its large twin budget and current account deficits. We still think that... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
