Emerging Markets Economics Update

“Turnaround EMs”: good start but plenty more to do

The policy shifts underway in Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina and Egypt have ticked a lot of the right boxes so far, but it will take years for the full economic benefits to materialise and require...

24th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

UAE set to be top of the class again in 2024

The UAE’s economy outperformed the other Gulf economies in 2023 and we think that this outperformance will continue this year.

23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia’s foreign investment struggles persist

Saudi Arabia has yet to be able to raise foreign direct investment towards its Vision 2030 goals, prompting a turn to the Public Investment Fund (PIF) to prop up investment spending. Unless the...

17th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The Iran drone strike & the oil market implications

There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving...

15th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Bahrain needs to follow Oman’s path to reduce debt fears

Oman and Bahrain both recorded sharp increases in their government debt-to-GDP ratios in the second half of the last decade, but while Oman’s public finances have improved dramatically since then...

8th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia's non-oil economy to drive the recovery

After a very weak 2023, Saudi Arabia’s economy should see a modest recovery this year as the Kingdom’s non-oil economy sustains its strong momentum and more than offsets the drag from the extended oil...

3rd April 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt’s orthodox policy shift back underway with IMF

The announcement of an agreement over a new IMF package for Egypt, coming on the back of the rate hike and devaluation earlier today, represents a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. While it is...

6th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Morocco well placed to move towards floating dirham

Morocco’s improving balance of payments position and the sharp slowdown in inflation should provide the central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), with the confidence to take the next step toward a fully...

4th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt: Ras el Hekma deal paves the way for policy shift

The $35bn deal struck between Egypt’s government and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, will go some way towards alleviating acute balance of payments strains and pave the way for an enhanced...

27th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Israel-Hamas spillovers weigh on non-Gulf economies

The main spillover to the global economy, so far, from the Israel-Hamas conflict has been major disruptions to shipping, but there has been a bigger and broader economic impact in the MENA region...

20th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia: downturn over, but a slow recovery in 2024

Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted by 0.9% over the course of 2023 on the back of the Kingdom’s oil output cuts. But the recession ended in Q4 and we think that a gradual recovery will ensue over 2024...

7th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

PMIs: Gulf a bright spot, Israel-Hamas war weighs on Egypt

January’s batch of PMIs showed that activity across non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf eased a touch at the start of the year, but activity remains robust and will support the broader economic...

5th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt hikes interest rates as new IMF deal edges closer

Events in Egypt yesterday, including a large interest rate hike and comments that a disbursement of more IMF funding is close, suggest that a shift towards more orthodox policy is nearing. If a new...

2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Will Saudi shift tack on oil policy?

Saudi Arabia has cut oil output significantly over the past year or so but that hasn’t prevented global oil prices from falling. Despite Aramco’s announcement today that it is postponing plans to...

30th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Is Tunisia looking down the barrel of a sovereign default?

Tunisia’s government faces a large debt repayment next month and, while it should be able to make that, there is still a lot of debt coming due in the next twelve months. President Saied’s...

24th January 2024 · 3 mins read