Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rate cuts still on the cards in Egypt The jump in Egyptian inflation in February has reduced the chances that the central bank will loosen policy at this month’s MPC meeting, but subdued core price pressures and strong capital inflows... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy’s strong end to 2018 already fading Saudi Arabia’s economy appears to have expanded by around 4.5% y/y in Q4 of last year, but it is now almost certainly slowing. Our forecast for GDP growth of 1.3% this year lies towards the bottom of... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lessons for Algeria from the Arab Spring The protests in Algeria have inevitably spurred comparisons with the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011 and the experience from that period is that economic growth will slow and balance of payments strains... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria: protests add to headwinds facing economy The recent protests in Algeria threaten to worsen the country’s economic problems. We already expected sharp falls in the dinar and much weaker economic growth over the next couple of years, but the... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the return of deflation mean for the Gulf? Weak domestic demand has pushed several Gulf economies into deflation, although most places are well placed to deal with the negative repercussions. If anything, a period of deflation is what is... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s tourism recovery has further to run Egypt’s tourism sector has mounted a rapid recovery over the past couple of years and, so long as security concerns don’t flare up again, it probably has further to run. Tourism receipts could rise by... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: oil output cuts to cause fresh slowdown Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy gathered pace towards the end of last year, recording growth of as much as 5% y/y. But oil output cuts, combined with a tightening of fiscal policy in... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s behind Tunisia’s large current account deficit? Tunisia’s large current account deficit is the result of struggles in the tourism sector as well as an overvalued exchange rate and overly loose fiscal policy. Implementing austerity looks to be an... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A primer on Lebanon’s sovereign debt It seems more likely than not that the Lebanese authorities will have to follow through with debt restructuring to place the public finances on a more sustainable footing. With commercial banks... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: dollar peg to stay intact but growth to be weak The fall in oil prices since late last year has cast the spotlight on to Oman’s weak balance sheet and caused the rial to come under pressure. The country’s neutral stance in regional politics means... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget: wishful thinking Saudi Arabia’s budget for 2019 outlined further fiscal loosening but the government seems to be relying on optimistic assumptions for oil prices to rise to almost $80pb. If prices stay low as we... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Stronger growth in Saudi Arabia won’t last Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy accelerated in Q3 but last week’s OPEC deal to cut oil output means that a fresh slowdown is on the cards in early 2019. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC deal means weaker growth in the Gulf in 2019 The deal reached by OPEC to reduce oil output means that the economic slowdown in the Gulf that we had expected from the middle of next year will now occur earlier and be more severe. Accordingly, we... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks can’t prop up the Egyptian pound for much longer The Egyptian authorities appear to have leaned on state-owned banks to sell FX assets to offset pressure on the pound recently, but this can only be sustained for a few more months at most. The... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar leaving OPEC not a game changer Qatar’s decision to pull out of the oil cartel, OPEC, is unlikely to have a major impact on global energy markets but it further cements the country’s feud with Saudi Arabia and its allies. The... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco a bright spot in the emerging world Morocco’s rapid integration into global manufacturing supply chains, particularly in the automobile sector, should spur rapid economic growth in the coming years. We expect Morocco to be one of the... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
