Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Should we worry about Egypt’s external debt? The sharp rise in Egyptian external debt in the last few years has triggered alarm in some quarters. But it has been accompanied by a large increase in FX reserves, suggesting that risks are currently... 20th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fresh look at the Aramco IPO The planned IPO of Aramco – which reports suggest is back on – will probably make the government less inclined to impose fresh austerity measures in response to lower oil prices. The partial sale of... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain and Oman: neighbours unlikely to pull the plug Financial support from the Gulf means that Bahrain and Oman should avoid damaging devaluations and acute sovereign debt problems. Even if their governments fail to implement the fiscal tightening that... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf sovereign debt fears centre on Bahrain and Oman Government debt-to-GDP ratios across the Gulf have risen significantly over the past five years but only in Bahrain and Oman do we hold serious concerns over the health of the public finances... 31st July 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy continues to lose steam Our GDP Tracker suggests that the slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s economy at the start of this year extended into Q2 and it looks set to intensify over the rest of 2019. Our forecast for GDP growth of just... 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer strength unlikely to be sustained Household consumption in Saudi Arabia expanded at its fastest pace in more than three years in Q1 but the prospect of fresh subsidy cuts and tax hikes means that this recent strength won’t last. 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: slowdown to be short-lived Economic growth in the UAE will slow over the rest of this year due to the impact of oil production cuts. But preparations for the World Expo will help to drive a rebound in 2020 and we expect the... 4th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s slowdown extends into Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed further at the start of Q2 as the drag from the oil sector intensified and the recent pick-up in the non-oil sector started to peter out. We... 25th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon’s electricity reform: necessary but insufficient Reform of Lebanon’s state-owned electricity company, EdL, lies at the heart of the government’s efforts to tackle the dire public finances. But while this is needed, the approved measures are unlikely... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s IMF deal: end of term report Egypt’s IMF deal has proved successful in helping to repair the country’s balance sheets, but many of the structural constraints facing the economy remain in place and will be extremely difficult to... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth in Saudi Arabia to slip further Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed in the first quarter as a pick-up in the non-oil economy was offset by weakness in the oil sector. We think that the slowdown has further to... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound’s rally unlikely to last The Egyptian pound has been the best performing EM currency this year, but we think that it will give up all of its gains over the coming months. We forecast the pound to depreciate by around 7% to 18... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: easing cycle on hold until late-2019 The Egyptian central bank’s decision today to keep interest rates on hold (rather than cut them) reflected policymakers’ concerns about the inflationary impact of upcoming subsidy cuts. But with... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi credit growth to remain subdued Credit growth in Saudi Arabia has started to pick up and, with monetary conditions set to be loosened in line with the US, it is likely to strengthen further over the next couple of years. That said... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What the rise in US-Iran tensions means for the Gulf Mounting friction between the US and Iran is likely to cause Iran’s economic downturn to deepen but, on its own, this doesn’t pose a major problem for the Gulf economies. The bigger threat is that... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Balance sheets improving, but vulnerabilities remain The health of balance sheets across the Middle East and North Africa have come under the spotlight in recent months. We are most concerned about some of the smaller economies, particularly Lebanon. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
