Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Stronger growth in Saudi Arabia won’t last Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy accelerated in Q3 but last week’s OPEC deal to cut oil output means that a fresh slowdown is on the cards in early 2019. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC deal means weaker growth in the Gulf in 2019 The deal reached by OPEC to reduce oil output means that the economic slowdown in the Gulf that we had expected from the middle of next year will now occur earlier and be more severe. Accordingly, we... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks can’t prop up the Egyptian pound for much longer The Egyptian authorities appear to have leaned on state-owned banks to sell FX assets to offset pressure on the pound recently, but this can only be sustained for a few more months at most. The... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar leaving OPEC not a game changer Qatar’s decision to pull out of the oil cartel, OPEC, is unlikely to have a major impact on global energy markets but it further cements the country’s feud with Saudi Arabia and its allies. The... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco a bright spot in the emerging world Morocco’s rapid integration into global manufacturing supply chains, particularly in the automobile sector, should spur rapid economic growth in the coming years. We expect Morocco to be one of the... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi likely to push ahead with modest oil output cut The upcoming OPEC meeting is likely to result in Saudi Arabia agreeing to reduce its oil output. But we think that any cut will be at the more modest end of the spectrum as the authorities balance the... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: sanctions to have limited near-term impact The imposition of targeted sanctions by the US on Saudi Arabia in relation to the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi is unlikely to hit local financial markets hard when they reopen on Sunday. After... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank shrugs off rising inflation The decision by Egypt’s central bank to keep its policy interest rate on hold confirmed that the MPC is paying more attention to weak underlying price pressures than the recent spike in headline... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to make of Saudi Arabia’s push for oil output cuts Saudi Arabia’s push for a fresh round of oil output cuts isn’t a done deal and a sustained unilateral cut is unlikely. Even so, it adds to the evidence of a more erratic approach to oil policy under... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Still some slack left in Egypt’s economy Egypt’s economy has grown at a robust pace over the past couple of years, but we estimate that there is still an output gap equal to 2.0-2.5% of potential GDP. Accordingly, as demand strengthens, the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will stronger growth in the Gulf boost the rest of MENA? We expect that growth will strengthen in the Gulf over the coming quarters, but any potential boost to the rest of the MENA region is likely to be modest. While remittance flows might pick up, trade... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rising oil output boosting growth in Saudi Arabia Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy picked up in August on the back of rising oil output. And while the threat of the US imposing sanctions on the Kingdom has clouded the outlook, we still... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi dollar peg to remain intact The fallout from the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, appears to have triggered a spike in capital outflows, putting pressure on the riyal. But we think it’s highly unlikely that the Saudi... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fresh political shock and oil prices key risks to watch The fallout from the disappearance of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, has supposedly shifted investors’ attention to the Saudi government’s rising debt burden, but we think that these concerns are... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia and the sanctions threat The escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and the US over the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is likely to weigh on local financial markets, but the Kingdom is in a strong... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf’s recovery to peak in mid-2019 The Gulf’s economic recovery looks set to gather pace over the coming quarters and growth is likely to be stronger than most expect. But the recovery will probably peak in the middle of next year and... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read