Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s IMF deal: end of term report Egypt’s IMF deal has proved successful in helping to repair the country’s balance sheets, but many of the structural constraints facing the economy remain in place and will be extremely difficult to... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth in Saudi Arabia to slip further Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed in the first quarter as a pick-up in the non-oil economy was offset by weakness in the oil sector. We think that the slowdown has further to... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound’s rally unlikely to last The Egyptian pound has been the best performing EM currency this year, but we think that it will give up all of its gains over the coming months. We forecast the pound to depreciate by around 7% to 18... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: easing cycle on hold until late-2019 The Egyptian central bank’s decision today to keep interest rates on hold (rather than cut them) reflected policymakers’ concerns about the inflationary impact of upcoming subsidy cuts. But with... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi credit growth to remain subdued Credit growth in Saudi Arabia has started to pick up and, with monetary conditions set to be loosened in line with the US, it is likely to strengthen further over the next couple of years. That said... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What the rise in US-Iran tensions means for the Gulf Mounting friction between the US and Iran is likely to cause Iran’s economic downturn to deepen but, on its own, this doesn’t pose a major problem for the Gulf economies. The bigger threat is that... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Balance sheets improving, but vulnerabilities remain The health of balance sheets across the Middle East and North Africa have come under the spotlight in recent months. We are most concerned about some of the smaller economies, particularly Lebanon. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget position likely to deteriorate Saudi Arabia recorded a budget surplus in Q1 but, if oil prices drop back as we expect, the fiscal position is likely to deteriorate. This won’t cause significant balance sheet strains, although... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown has further to run After reaching a three-year high in Q4 2018, GDP growth in Saudi Arabia has slowed at the start of this year as the drag from oil output cuts has more than offset a pick-up in activity in the non-oil... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Widening Moroccan CA deficit not a cause for alarm Morocco’s current account deficit ballooned to its largest level in four years in Q4, but we think that this is temporary and that the shortfall will narrow this year. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bouteflexit: what next for Algeria? The decision by Algeria’s President Bouteflika to step down is likely to result in a long and potentially messy transition. At the very least, economic growth will weaken and the chances of a severe... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown to be steeper than most expect Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded at its fastest pace in three years in Q4 of last year, but our GDP Tracker points to a renewed slowdown at the start of 2019. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian central bank pauses easing cycle The Egyptian central bank’s decision today to keep interest rates unchanged (rather than cut rates) appears to have been a result of the jump in inflation in February. But if we’re right that... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai: solid growth, but debt risks linger Economic growth in Dubai should hold up well at 3.8-4.5% over the next couple of years due to a boost from the 2020 World Expo. Loan restructurings undertaken in 2014 have masked the Emirate’s debt... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria’s protests and the impact on the rest of MENA Any economic fallout from the protests in Algeria will have a negligible impact on the rest of the MENA region. The greater risk stems from political contagion. Past experience suggests that... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria after Bouteflika Algeria’s President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s decision not to seek a fifth term in office is unlikely to spell the end of the political saga. Whoever eventually takes over will inherit an economy that... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
