Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Will Egypt monetise its budget deficit? There are mounting concerns about the prospect of deficit monetisation in Egypt. Indeed, thereappears to be some evidence that the central bank is already financing the budget shortfall, albeiton a... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Is the worst now over for Dubai? Optimism has returned to Dubai’s economy, but its debt problems aren’t fully resolved. Ultimately, we think oil-rich Abu Dhabi will step in to provide emergency financing if needed. But even so, the... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf overheating fears haven't disappeared Recently announced plans in the Gulf countries to ease fiscal policy to counter the global downturn could lead to renewed fears of overheating in the region. Our core inflation measures suggest that... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf to remain net oil exporter for many years to come We don’t agree with recent reports suggesting that some of the major hydrocarbon producers in the Gulf are likely to become net oil importers within the next two decades. Instead, we think that a... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus A deal with the IMF will mark a turning point for Egypt The visit of Christine Lagarde to Egypt today is perhaps the clearest signal yet that the country is close to signing a deal with the IMF. If this materialises before the end of the year (as the... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Oil-poor countries could still outperform in the long term The economic prospects for some of the resource-poor Arab countries are brighter than their current conditions suggest. Although political transitions are proving difficult, we still think that they... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Arabia’s economy is set to slow this year Our new Saudi Arabian whole-economy activity proxy suggests that GDP grew by around 7% y/y in the first quarter of this year, maintaining the record pace of growth in 2011. However, the combination of... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt devaluation: causes and likely consequences We think that a devaluation of the Egyptian pound is more likely than not, even if the government reaches an agreement with the IMF this month. The pound appears to be overvalued by around 15% to 25%... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus What will bring oil prices down? The price of Brent has remained close to $125 per barrel despite verbal intervention from Saudi Arabia and the threat of an early release of official stocks led by the US. We are therefore nudging up... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Euro-crisis: how big is the threat of financial contagion for EMs? The economies of Asia and Latin America should be able to weather any financial contagion stemming from Europe’s debt crisis. But the economies of emerging Europe – notably Hungary, Turkey and the... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The GCC’s fiscal plans may prove unsustainable This year’s fiscal stimulus packages in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have increased the risk of a spending squeeze in the next 10 to 20 years. Admittedly, enormous foreign currency... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Sovereign Debt: are the emerging markets immune? Emerging markets are not immune from the deepening debt crisis in the developed world, but most are well-placed to deal with the fallout. China faces a difficult structural transition of its own but... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Will the 'Arab Spring' bring economic transformation? The recent political turmoil, the so-called ‘Arab Spring’, could ultimately lead to a marked acceleration in economic growth for some parts of the Arab World. Egypt, Morocco and, to a lesser extent... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Will emerging markets outperform again? The relative valuations of emerging market equities and bonds are no longer as attractive as they have been in the past. But the fears of overheating and hard landings that have held many back so far... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
