Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Five reasons why we’re upbeat on the outlook for Morocco After a difficult few years, the outlook for Morocco is finally brightening. We think the country could be one of the best performing economies in the emerging world over the coming years. 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Assessing the outlook for post-sanctions Iran The recent nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 has rekindled investors’ interest in the Islamic Republic. In this Focus, we take a closer look at the outlook for Iran’s economy and explain... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why the Gulf’s dollar pegs are here to stay The sharp fall in oil prices since the middle of last year has thrust the Gulf’s dollar pegs under the spotlight but there are plenty of reasons to think that the risk of currency devaluation remains... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus What to look out for from Egypt’s investor conference The Egyptian government has organised this week’s Economic and Development Conference as a milestone in its strategy to raise much-needed investment. The spotlight will be on the unveiling of large... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Fall in oil prices to wipe out Gulf’s current account surplus The recent fall in oil prices, if sustained, will effectively wipe out the Gulf’s current account surplus. This shouldn’t pose too many problems for these economies. Even if oil prices fall further... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf: Fall in oil prices unlikely to trigger another “lost decade” Concerns that the recent fall in oil prices could lead to another “lost decade” for the Gulf, similar to the 1980s, are probably overdone. The region’s large accumulated savings mean that most... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Algeria’s economy on an unsustainable path Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s re-election in April seemed to mark a return to business as usual for the economy. However, Algeria’s growth model is looking increasingly unsustainable. If... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Five priorities for Egypt’s new government With Egypt’s presidential election now out of the way, policymakers’ attention has turned to reviving the struggling economy. In this Focus, we outline five areas which we think need to be addressed... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Will Egypt’s election be a turning point for the economy? Egypt’s upcoming presidential election has cast the spotlight back onto the country’s bumpy transition to democracy. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who led last summer’s “second revolution”, is widely expected... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus North Africa: A potential manufacturing hub? Three years on from the Arab Spring uprisings, political uncertainty continues to weigh on the near-term outlook for Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. But over a longer horizon, assuming that policymakers... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Is it time to sound the all-clear on the UAE’s banks? Five years on from Dubai’s debt crisis, the UAE’s banking sector appears to be returning to health, which should open the way for an improvement in credit growth. However, the large overhang of debt... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Will Egypt monetise its budget deficit? There are mounting concerns about the prospect of deficit monetisation in Egypt. Indeed, thereappears to be some evidence that the central bank is already financing the budget shortfall, albeiton a... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Is the worst now over for Dubai? Optimism has returned to Dubai’s economy, but its debt problems aren’t fully resolved. Ultimately, we think oil-rich Abu Dhabi will step in to provide emergency financing if needed. But even so, the... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf overheating fears haven't disappeared Recently announced plans in the Gulf countries to ease fiscal policy to counter the global downturn could lead to renewed fears of overheating in the region. Our core inflation measures suggest that... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf to remain net oil exporter for many years to come We don’t agree with recent reports suggesting that some of the major hydrocarbon producers in the Gulf are likely to become net oil importers within the next two decades. Instead, we think that a... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus A deal with the IMF will mark a turning point for Egypt The visit of Christine Lagarde to Egypt today is perhaps the clearest signal yet that the country is close to signing a deal with the IMF. If this materialises before the end of the year (as the... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
