Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Is Dubai facing another debt crisis? Efforts to contain the coronavirus will cause Dubai’s economy to contract sharply, exacerbating overcapacity in key sectors and making it more difficult for the Emirate’s government-related entities... 20th April 2020 · 18 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why Lebanon is heading for a debt restructuring The recent protests in Lebanon highlight that it is politically impossible to push through the fiscal austerity needed to stabilise the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio. A debt restructuring is... 23rd October 2019 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Assessing the potential impact of a US-Iran war War with the US would cause a collapse in Iran’s economy that would directly knock around 0.3%-pts off global GDP – equal to the damage from the US-China trade war so far. More important to the rest... 20th September 2019 · 23 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt: improved fiscal health to support faster growth The recent improvement in Egypt’s budget position will be enough to keep the government’s debt ratio on a downward trend. Government bond yields are likely to fall and austerity looks set to come to... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Can the Gulf economies weather the slump in oil prices? The latest slump in oil prices is unlikely to lead to major balance sheet strains in the largest Gulf economies and, even if prices fall further to $40-50pb, dollar pegs shouldn’t come under threat... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Qatar: A year on from the blockade One year after the diplomatic crisis surrounding Qatar first erupted, the economy appears to have weathered the storm. An escalation of the crisis remains the key threat to the economic outlook, but... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt: what to expect from al-Sisi’s second term? Egypt’s President al-Sisi is certain to emerge victorious in next week’s election and will begin his second term just as the economy is about to enjoy a cyclical upturn in growth. Beyond the next few... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi recovery on the way – but relief to be short-lived Saudi Arabia’s economy should pull out of recession this year as the drag from the oil sector fades and fiscal policy is loosened. But the relief is likely to prove short-lived and, in contrast to the... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi politics emerges as key economic risk Saudi politics has been a staid affair for decades, but Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s launch of an anti-corruption crackdown and his ratcheting up of tensions with Iran herald a period of greater... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Five key questions on the Saudi Aramco privatisation The recent political upheaval in Saudi Arabia has cast fresh doubts over the government’s plans to sell a stake in the state-owned oil company, Aramco. Fears that the sale will be scrapped altogether... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egyptian inflation likely to fall by more than most expect Egyptian inflation rose to its highest rate since 1986 in July, but it has been pushed up by a number of one-off factors that will fade over the next six-to-nine months. Indeed, we think inflation has... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Vision 2030 likely to fall short of lofty goals The recent elevation of Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman to crown prince has raised hopes of a renewed impetus to push through his Vision 2030 reform programme. But, while the scope of the programme... 27th June 2017 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Moroccan dirham to rise once central bank loosens its grip The spotlight in the region’s currency markets over the past couple of years has been on the threat of large devaluations but, as we explain in this Focus, the risks in Morocco appear to lie in the... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Arabia unlikely to take strong action to boost oil prices The oil cartel, OPEC, is likely to reach some sort of face-saving deal to cut oil output at its meeting next week, but we think claims that Saudi Arabia has abandoned its strategy of protecting its... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Rise in Saudi interest rates has further to go Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt devaluation: short-term pain, long-term gain? We think the latest moves by the Central Bank of Egypt suggest that a long-awaited devaluation of the pound may be just around the corner. This will inevitably involve some short-term pain, but over a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
