Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) February’s PMI data suggest that looser fiscal loosening has offset the impact of weaker external demand and supported a further pick-up in Saudi Arabia’s economy. In contrast, growth in the UAE and... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jan.) Saudi Arabia re-entered deflation at the start of 2019 as we had anticipated, with consumer prices falling by 1.9% y/y in January. A fresh round of subsidy cuts poses an upside risk to the inflation... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s PMIs point to stronger growth in the Gulf but we doubt that this will last as oil prices drop back and fiscal consolidation resumes. Elsewhere, inflation pressures in Egypt continued to... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down to 2.2% y/y in December on the back of weaker food and housing inflation and we expect it to fall back into negative territory in early 2019. 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt CPI (Dec.) & Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation in December increases the chances that policymakers start to cut interest rates again at the next MPC meeting in February. If inflation falls a bit further this... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egyptian inflation dropped back in November and we expect it to fall further over the coming months. The central bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting later this month, but we... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) November’s PMI data suggest that the Gulf’s non-oil sectors have held up well given the backdrop of the fall in oil prices. But we doubt that this resilience will last. Meanwhile, the surveys showed... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation increased to a six-month high in October but this rise is likely to prove fleeting. Inflation will drop sharply at the start of next year as the effects of the new value-added tax and... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation in October, taking it above the upper bound of the central bank’s end-year target range, raises the risk that policymakers will hike interest rates at this week... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) October’s PMI data suggest that the fallout from the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, including the threat of sanctions by the US, has had no discernible impact on Saudi Arabia’s economy... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Egyptian inflation to 16.0% y/y last month was driven almost entirely by higher food inflation but, even so, it probably means that the central bank’s easing cycle will be paused for a... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) Last month’s PMI data paint a mixed picture in the Gulf but we expect growth in non-oil sectors to pick up over the coming months on the back of fiscal stimulus. Elsewhere, the survey in Egypt... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Saudi inflation was unchanged between July and August but we still expect it to rise a little over the rest of this year as underlying price pressures pick up. 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The rise in Egyptian inflation to 14.2% y/y last month, coupled with the backdrop of the recent sell-off in EM financial markets, means that the central bank will probably leave interest rates... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s PMIs for the Gulf economies suggest that fiscal stimulus has continued to support a recovery in Saudi Arabia, but weaker external demand is weighing on growth in the UAE. Meanwhile, Egypt’s... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi inflation edged up in July on the back of stronger food inflation, although underlying price pressures eased. We expect that headline inflation will rise a little further over the rest of this... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
