Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The decline in Egyptian inflation in August to a six-year low of 7.5% y/y makes it is almost certain that the central bank will follow up last month’s 150bp interest rate cut with further easing. We... 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s whole economy PMIs from the Gulf suggest that the pick-up in growth in non-oil sectors seen in the first half of the year has topped out. If oil prices stay low and fiscal policy becomes less... 3rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi consumer prices continued to fall in July, by -1.3% y/y, but a closer look at the data suggests that underlying price pressures are starting to build. The headline rate is likely to return to... 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) The drop in Egyptian inflation to a four year low of 8.7% y/y in July reinforces our view that the central bank will resume its easing cycle at its next meeting with a 100bp cut in the overnight... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) The drop in PMIs across the Gulf in July suggests that the pick-up in growth in non-oil sectors in the first half of 2019 has started to go into reverse. If oil prices stay low and fiscal policy... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jun.) Deflation in Saudi Arabia continued to ease last month as the pick-up in activity in the non-oil sector fed through into stronger price pressures. If oil prices stay low, as we expect, the government... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) The sharp decline in Egyptian inflation last month, to a three-year low of 9.4% y/y, increases the chances that the central bank will soon resume its easing cycle. But policymakers will wait for... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.) June’s PMI figures were robust across the Gulf, but we expect that activity will slow as oil prices falter and fiscal policy becomes less supportive. Meanwhile, subdued price pressures in Egypt mean... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (May) Easing Saudi deflation in May suggests that the recent pick-up in growth in the non-oil sector is feeding through into price pressures. In addition, a fresh round of subsidy cuts is looking... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices & Whole Economy PMIs (May) The rise in Egyptian inflation in May, combined with upcoming subsidy cuts, means that the central bank will almost certainly refrain from resuming its easing cycle in the coming months. Meanwhile... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further easing of deflation in Saudi Arabia in April suggests that stronger activity in the non-oil sector at the start of this year is (finally) feeding through to a pick-up in price pressures. 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egyptian inflation dropped back in April but given that it remained above target, the chance of an interest rate cut at the MPC meeting in two weeks’ time is touch and go. For now, though, we still... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia remained in negative territory last month and, barring a fresh round of administered price hikes, we expect this to remain the case for much of this year. 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) The relatively high Egyptian inflation reading, of 14.2% y/y in March, reduces the probability that the central bank will resume its easing cycle at the next meeting in late May. But if we’re right... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) Strong PMIs across the Gulf were driven by higher oil prices rather than a sustained economic recovery. We expect that activity will slow as oil prices falter, though spending on the 2020 Expo will... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Feb.) Consumer prices in Saudi Arabia fell at an even faster pace in February than in January and we expect the Kingdom to remain mired in deflation for much of this year. 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
