Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) The modest rise in ‘whole economy’ PMIs in the Gulf last month probably reflects a boost to sentiment on the back of the recovery in oil prices from their January lows. The big picture, however, is... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) The further drop in ‘whole economy’ PMIs in the Gulf in January adds to evidence that tightening fiscal policy is beginning to weigh on growth. Elsewhere, the surveys suggest that Egypt’s economy... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia was unchanged at 2.3% y/y in December, but the recent wave of subsidy cuts means that it is likely to edge higher over the coming months. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia & UAE Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) The drop in ‘whole economy’ PMIs from the Gulf countries in December, in the case of Saudi Arabia to a fresh record low, provides further evidence that non-oil sectors are starting to feel the pinch... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3) The slowdown in Saudi GDP growth in the third quarter of last year, to 3.6% y/y, is a sign of things to come. With the recent budget confirming that a period of fiscal consolidation is now underway... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation to 11.1% y/y in November, alongside fresh fears over the fragile external position, is likely to add to policymaker’s concerns. For now, we expect the central... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slight fall in Saudi inflation in November, to 2.3% y/y, reinforces our view that the backdrop of weak global commodity prices and slowing growth should keep price pressures subdued over the... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation edged up for the second consecutive month in October, to 2.4% y/y, a fresh high for this year. Even so, low global commodity prices and slower economic growth should keep price... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation to 9.7% y/y in October was driven almost entirely by an increase in the food component, which is highly volatile. Stripping out food prices, inflation actually... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) October’s ‘whole economy’ PMIs for the MENA region suggest that economic activity slowed in the Gulf at the start of Q4. As the policy adjustment to cheap oil gets underway, we expect growth to weaken... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi Arabian inflation rose to 2.3% y/y in September, its highest rate this year. But with the economy set to slow and global commodity prices likely to stay low, we expect inflation to remain... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) September’s whole economy’ PMIs point to renewed weakness in the Gulf economies at the end of Q3. Elsewhere, there is further evidence that Egypt’s economy has stabilised following a weak first half... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt & Saudi Arabia CPI (Aug.) A further drop in Egyptian inflation in August to 7.9% y/y, its lowest rate in more than two years, means that an interest rate cut at this month’s MPC meeting is looking increasingly likely... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Balance of Payments (FY 2014/15) The whopping increase in Egypt’s current account deficit in the last fiscal year is likely to grab the headlines. But there is more to this than meets the eye. It largelyreflects an accounting issue... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s ‘whole economy’ PMIs suggest that the slump that the surveys had been pointing to in recent months has now reversed. Similarly, there is early evidence that Egypt’s economy may have turned... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
