Long Run Update US stock market unlikely to keep beating its economy While the stock market fared much better than the economy in the US overall during the past ten years, we do not expect that to remain the case. 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update The outlook for deglobalisation We argued some time ago that globalisation had peaked and a period of deglobalisation might even lie ahead. It is now becoming clearer what to expect – namely a type of regionalism driven by the... 16th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update Will the pandemic help “to green” economies? One silver lining of the pandemic may be to accelerate the transformation to a “green” global economy. The related investment could boost demand, and possibly potential growth, in those countries... 10th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Long Run Update The long view of property In light of our latest long-term economic and financial market forecasts, we have revisited our views for commercial property performance over the next three decades. We think that average returns... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update China’s “sorpasso” Our long-run forecasts suggest that China will still be the second largest economy, measured at market exchange rates, in 2050. The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and a... 19th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Ten key calls for the next 30 years The Long Run is a new subscription service offering insight into issues that will shape the global economy and financial markets over the next 30 years. This Update outlines our ten key calls for the... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update The future for city property In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most... 4th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update Pandemic will not be the death of cities The pandemic – and the associated increase in working from home – may cause a fundamental shift in the way that cities function in future. But this shift will not necessarily trigger a more... 5th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Long Run Update Korea: demographic “time bomb” to weigh on growth Korea’s population last year shrank for the first time in its history, underlining the seriousness of the demographic “time bomb” facing the country. The poor demographic outlook is the key reason why... 5th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update Economies after COVID The COVID pandemic will leave a profound economic legacy. But unlike previous crises, this will not necessarily manifest itself in much weaker rates of long-term economic growth. Instead, the economic... 17th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update Deglobalisation to continue whoever wins US election With the US election result likely to have limited near-term implications for world GDP, the main issue for the global economy is how it affects US trade policy. Joe Biden would take a less aggressive... 5th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Fed adopts average inflation target Chair Jerome Powell announced this morning that the Fed will be adopting what he described as a “flexible form of average inflation targeting”, which we expect will trigger additional policy stimulus... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update How will the fiscal costs of the crisis be dealt with? This Update draws together the conclusions from the various pieces of research that we have published in recent weeks on how the fiscal costs of the crisis will be dealt with. In short, we are... 10th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update Reforms through the back door in India Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update How to think about the long-term effects of the virus The immediate effects of the coronavirus on the global economy are becoming increasingly clear and point to a sharp fall in output across the world. Recession looms. The effects over the longer term... 19th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Coronavirus: the long-term impact on supply chains The coronavirus itself may not trigger a wholesale reorganisation of supply chains, but it strengthens the argument for companies to reduce associated risks. One response might be to introduce more... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
