US Economics Update American protectionism and global fracturing While it is in America’s strategic interests to build stronger economic ties with allies to counter China’s growth, its protectionist tendencies could undermine those goals and blunt the effectiveness... 22nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update Pouring cold water on the “petroyuan” The process of “global fracturing” that we outlined in our annual Spotlight series last year will remain the dominant macro theme for the next decade. But speculation that it will result in the rise... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How 2022 altered the long-run outlook for US equities Although valuation premia in certain parts of the US stock market shrank significantly last year, we think there is still some room for this to continue in the coming decade and weigh on their... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Long-run US equity relative performance and the US dollar We suspect the underperformance of US equities that has accompanied the US dollar’s slump so far this month will become a feature from mid-2023, as the currency eventually comes under sustained... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: major challenges await new PM Malaysia heads to the polls on Saturday for a general election which, if the latest opinion polls are correct, will lead to a further period of unstable and fractured politics. This reduces the... 16th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update We expect mediocre long-run returns from Chinese equities Although relatively low equity valuations sometimes point to a greater chance of outsized returns over longer time horizons, we do not think that this is the case for China’s stock market. After all... 20th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update Has the shift in fiscal policy altered the UK’s prospects? In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Long Run Update to clients of our UK Economics Service. If the UK government’s “new era of fiscal policy” boosts GDP growth as planned, the UK’s... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update India leading EM rise up the world rankings Emerging markets will account for more than half of global GDP within the next decade. Headlining this, India is on course to become the world’s third largest economy by 2030. And EMs with rapid... 6th September 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Prospects for female labour participation in India We agree with PM Modi’s assertion in his Independence Day speech over the weekend that boosting female participation in the labour force could have a major positive impact on the economy, but in truth... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Composition of spending will change as populations age The composition of spending changes as consumers age, with a greater proportion allocated to healthcare, food and drink, and less to education, transport and recreation. The experience of countries... 1st August 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation S&P 500’s valuation points to mediocre long-term returns US equities have plunged this year, but the S&P 500’s valuation remains a long way from looking low on most measures, including Shiller’s CAPE. This is a key reason why we expect the returns from US... 25th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update Which countries can offer lessons for ageing populations? Ageing populations will be one of the main structural challenges facing many economies over the coming decades. Ahead of a series of work analysing what can be learned from countries ageing rapidly... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update UN forecasts confirm broad demographic headwinds The UN’s latest population projections highlight that demographic headwinds are set to mount in almost all economies outside Africa. The most significant downward revisions were to its forecasts for... 13th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Is the low inflation era really over? At the recent ECB’s annual forum, the world’s top central bankers argued that a return to a world of low inflation was unlikely. It is true that sustained undershoots of inflation targets are probably... 8th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Inflation – how high is too high? While the current rise in inflation to near double-digit rates is clearly undesirable, it begs the question of at what point the costs of sustained higher inflation outweigh the benefits. We think... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
