Long Run Update Which countries will struggle to shrink fiscal deficits? Most major DMs need to shrink their primary budget deficits significantly and, for various reasons, most are likely to find it hard to do so. This will exacerbate growing worries about fiscal... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update Taking stock of green investment needs Investment in the green transition is unlikely to rise quickly enough this decade to help achieve net zero by 2050. But a greater focus on areas including renewables and electric vehicles will still... 25th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update G20 underlines that fracturing is becoming a reality The G20 summit which concluded yesterday in New Delhi supported our view that the global economy is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, and that India still leans to the former. While the... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Ambition collides with reality at the BRICS summit China’s push to develop the BRICS bloc into a geo-political counterweight to the G7 is likely to be thwarted by the competing interests and priorities of other member states. Nonetheless, positioning... 21st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update India headlining EM rise up the global rankings EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. India will become the world’s third-largest economy before 2030. More generally, EMs with rapid population... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Economic fracturing to continue despite thaw in relations A series of high-level diplomatic meetings this week have raised hopes that strains in US-China relations will start to ease. But the politics of fragmentation was never likely to proceed in a linear... 20th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Female participation rate hasn’t peaked yet The female participation rate has surged over the past decade but more favourable attitudes among women towards paid employment suggest that it will keep rising for a while yet. Asia Drop-In (22 nd... 19th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Investors may be underestimating eventual rate cuts How low Fed and ECB policy rates will go, when they are eventually normalised, is at least as important for financial markets as the precise timings of the ends of tightening cycles, in our view. We... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Can ageing countries keep their workforces growing? In theory, there is plenty of scope for those countries set to age most rapidly over the coming few decades to cushion the impact on their workforces via migration and a rise in both female and older... 4th May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Assessing the physical climate change risks to property The physical risks facing commercial property are substantial with extreme weather events like floods and wildfires set to increase in both the US and Europe over the coming decades. Property markets... 21st April 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Malaria vaccine: a potentially big long-term boost The economic impact of the Oxford malaria vaccine, which has now been approved by regulators in Ghana and Nigeria, will depend on the pace and breadth of the rollout and how long immunity lasts for... 20th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Mapping economic reforms for the UK The numerous “plans for growth” that have been announced by the Government, the Opposition, and various commentators in recent months vary in their analytical rigour but all miss one crucial point... 9th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property returns to revive over the longer term The current economic downturn will mean that short-to-medium term property performance is under-par. But over a longer horizon, we expect real estate returns to reassert their traditional position... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
