Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina budget concerns, Brazil election heating up Argentina’s 2019 budget will reportedly contain some much-needed spending cuts, but key IMF requests are conspicuous by their absence. Meanwhile, Brazil’s election race is beginning to heat up, but... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Is Macri a busted flush? The export tax announced by Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri this week, which formed the centrepiece of an emergency fiscal austerity package, will help to narrow the budget deficit. But the fact... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina relapses, Mexican peso muted on trade deal The sense of crisis that engulfed Argentina on Wednesday and Thursday seems to have eased today and, while there is a clear risk that the currency falls further in the near term, based on the real... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico bowing to US, Lula support growing A “handshake deal” between Mexico and the US on auto trade rules is apparently close, but several hurdles must be cleared before a new Nafta treaty is agreed. Elsewhere, Brazilian markets finally seem... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s election campaign, Banxico’s prudence Campaigning for Brazil’s elections in October started this week, and market-friendly candidate Geraldo Alckmin seems to have positioned himself well to mount a challenge to the leading populists... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Graft scandal rattles Argentine markets The Turkish lira may have surpassed the Argentine peso as the worst performing EM currency this year, but Argentine markets have still had a rough week. The lesson from other parts of Latin America is... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Hawkish Banxico, Colombia’s austere budget Mexico’s central bank struck a hawkish tone in the statement accompanying this week’s monetary policy decision, and the markets are pricing in a good chance of another interest rate hike in the near... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Nafta talks restart, dire data from Argentina The relatively modest rise in the Mexican peso against the dollar in reaction to the positive news flow on Nafta talks suggests that investors are interpreting recent events with caution. Indeed, a... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rate hikes coming in the Andes Central banks in Colombia and Chile are set to leave interest rates unchanged at their meetings next week, but we think rates are likely to rise sooner, and a little further, than the markets are... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal discipline slipping in Brazil The 2019 budget guidelines approved by Brazil’s Congress this week diluted measures to contain spending and reinforce our view that appetite for economic reform in the legislature is waning. Even if... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo makes the right noises Mexican financial markets have rallied this week following some business-friendly noises from left-wing president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo), but we’d be wary of reading too much into... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB plays down rate hikes, Mexico goes to the polls A victory for left-wing populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Amlo) in Mexico’s presidential vote this weekend looks priced in. The market reaction is likely to take its cue from the performance of... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks take centre stage The Mexican central bank’s decision to raise interest rates this week underscored its sensitivity to currency weakness and, while our base case is that this move will be a one-off, further falls in... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
