Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina policy U-turn continues, Maduro clings on The decision by Argentina’s central bank to scrap the peso’s trading band and signal more FX intervention has shored up the currency this week but, sooner rather than later, markets are likely to test... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina: pricing political risk, CA now in balance? Argentine markets have stabilised today but, by our estimates, the aggressive sell-off earlier this week has resulted in the political risk premium on dollar bonds widening to around 200bp. We think... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s unorthodoxy, Argentina’s inflation panic Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro this week has shown further signs that he is less committed to market orthodoxy than many had hoped. For now, it seems that parts of the administration are working... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s first 100 days, rising regional inflation Jair Bolsonaro’s government has put forward an impressive set of plans to reform Brazil’s economy, but souring relations with congress reinforce our view that these will be diluted. Perhaps of more... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico back in Trump’s firing line President Trump’s renewed threats to a) place a 25% tariff on vehicle imports from Mexico and b) close the southern border would, if acted on, deal a substantial hit to Mexican GDP. But we think they... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro boost over, MXN shrugs off USMCA risks Expectations for reforms from the Bolsonaro government came crashing back to earth this week and there is now a risk premium on the Brazilian real and dollar bonds that could increase further unless... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly A pension setback in Brazil, Argentina’s recession Swings in Brazil’s equity and currency markets this week suggest that investors are coming to terms with the idea that pension reform will be diluted. But there are much greater concerns about... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCRA measures no silver bullet, team Amlo discord Measures announced by Argentina’s central bank last night appear to have supported the peso today, but the currency will remain vulnerable to large falls, particularly as October’s presidential... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Carnival hangover for real & Argentine peso The sharp falls in the Argentine peso and Brazilian real in the second half of the week reflected both worsening global risk appetite and domestic political concerns. A few weeks ago it had felt that... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s pensions, new BCB governor, Mexican bonds Noises from Brazilian lawmakers this week hinted that parts of the government’s pension reform plan could be diluted. But so far, the core components of the bill do not appear to have come up against... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s IMF deal to sustain bond rally, ARS drop Ecuador’s IMF deal announced this week will help to anchor President Lenín Moreno’s austerity drive and sustain the rally in sovereign bonds. Meanwhile, the Argentine peso has come under renewed... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pemex’s sticking plaster, Argentina’s fiscal rumours The bailout package announced earlier today by Mexico’s president for the ailing state-owned oil company Pemex is unlikely to arrest the alarming decline in oil output and prevent yields on Pemex debt... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Guedes’ ambitious pension bill, Banxico statements Details of Brazilian Finance Minister Paulo Guedes’ pension reform unveiled this week are impressive, but political realities could yet scupper these plans. Elsewhere, despite the hawkish statement... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela’s lessons from history, Vale impact Venezuelan dollar bonds have continued to rally this week on hopes of a swift political transition, debt restructuring and economic overhaul, but history suggests that this could prove optimistic... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lenín going to the IMF, Venezuela’s crisis deepens Speculation is growing that Ecuador’s president, Lenín Moreno, will seek an IMF deal in the coming months, and history suggests that the recent rally in sovereign dollar bonds has further to run... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Weakness in ARS to continue, noisy Brazil data The Argentine peso has given up some of its recent gains against the dollar this week, and we expect further weakness over the coming months. Elsewhere, better-than-expected Brazilian retail sales... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
