Latin America Economics Weekly

Banxico, Chile’s current account, Brazil’s rate hike debate

The data out of Mexico this week, alongside the minutes to the central bank’s August meeting, support our view that Banxico will continue its easing cycle in September. Elsewhere, the further...

23rd August 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentine inflation, Brazil’s hawks, change in Venezuela?

Suggestions from the governments of Brazil and Colombia have led to a bit of movement towards solving Venezuela’s post-election stand-off. A lot remains uncertain, but our sense is that the likelihood...

16th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Banxico cuts, LatAm and the global market turmoil

The Mexican peso was on a rollercoaster ride this week but, as we'd expected, Banxico placed more emphasis on the weakness in the economy as it pressed ahead with a 25bp cut (to 10.75%). And the...

9th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela: rig and repress

The declaration that incumbent Nicolás Maduro won Venezuela’s presidential election has been met with protests and international pressure for a full account of the results. But our sense at this stage...

2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela votes, Mexico’s gigafactory & inflation worries

Opinion polls suggest that Venezuela’s election on Sunday could bring Chavismo to an end, allowing the economy to open up and for sanctions to be lifted. But we doubt that the economic damage of the...

26th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina intervenes (again), Q2 shaping up to be weaker

Argentine financial assets sold off this week after Economy Minister Caputo announced that the central bank will start to sell dollars in the parallel market. The plan shows that the government is...

19th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Food inflation, US tariffs, Colombia’s public finance risks

The raft of June inflation data out this week was not as bad as the rise in the headline rates would suggest, as higher food inflation masked falls in in core inflation. Core inflation appears most...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile slows, Colombia rates, Milei’s second reform stage

The softer-than-expected activity data out of Chile this week add to the evidence that the economy lost momentum in Q2, which poses a downside risk to our growth forecast this year. Elsewhere...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Bolivia’s coup attempt, Lula attacks the BCB

The coup attempt in Bolivia this week shouldn’t be read as a warning sign for other Latin American countries. But it does shine a spotlight on institutional fragility in the region – as evidenced by...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s IMF review, cautious central banks

The eighth review of Argentina’s IMF programme published this week is a whole-hearted endorsement of President Milei’s economic record. That said, the Fund called on Argentine authorities to take...

21st June 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Currency worries, good news from Argentina

Recent sharp falls in the Brazilian real and Mexican peso will add to concerns at their respective central banks. We now expect no further rate cuts in Brazil this year and the risks to our already...

14th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s ‘supermajority’ worries, Brazil’s Q1 GDP figures

The prospect of a Morena-led supermajority in Mexico’s congress following Sunday’s election could allow Amlo's proposed constitutional amendments to see the light of day, weakening Mexico’s...

7th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico heads to the polls, IMF’s optimism about Brazil

Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday and, while Claudia Sheinbaum appears to be a shoo-in to win the presidency, attention will probably focus on the congressional results which will determine her...

31st May 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s vote, Chile’s rate cut, Argentina’s trade surplus

The dramatic improvement in Argentina’s trade balance has helped the central bank to rebuild its FX reserves, but this has only been made possible because domestic demand has collapsed. A weaker...

24th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

DR votes, Lula intervenes, Argentine officials cheer

Dominicans are set to re-elect President Luis Abinader on Sunday and there's widespread hope among investors that his second term will see further measures to improve the public finances. Elsewhere...

17th May 2024 · 7 mins read